Fades a trend-extending regional-bank ETF gap after one full hour, using a broader 0.5× gap filter and simulated 4× gross exposure.
AI-generated · forward qualification pending
AI provenance identifies who designed this candidate. It remains unqualified until a fresh frozen period passes every profitability, benchmark, cost and trade-count gate.
How the strategy works
The model looks for an opening gap that stretches KRE in the same direction as its established 20-session trend. It does not enter at the opening print: it waits through the first completed hour, then fades the extension from 10:30 ET to the closing bell. The balanced variant admits gaps at least half as large as the trailing median, producing more observations than the selective version.
Concrete example
KRE closed yesterday at 60, remains above its prior-20-session SMA, and opens at 60.60. If the prior-20 median absolute gap is 0.50%, this 1.0% up-gap clears the 0.5× filter. At 10:30 ET the paper model opens a short at that bar's open and covers at the final regular-session close.
Exact algorithm
- Compare the regular-session open with the prior regular-session close.
- Require the gap direction to agree with the prior close versus its prior-20-session SMA.
- Require absolute gap size to be at least 0.5× the prior-20-session median absolute gap.
- Enter opposite the gap at the 10:30 ET bar open and flatten at the final regular-session close; model 4× gross exposure.
Required data: ohlcv
Where it may work—and where it can fail
Main risks
- Trend-aligned news gaps can continue violently
- Four-times simulated exposure magnifies every error
- KRE is a concentrated banking-sector instrument
- The rule was selected retrospectively and has not completed a fresh forward window
“Best conditions” is an interpretation of the strategy's mechanism, not an additional course entry rule and not a performance guarantee.
Forward paper transactions
| Entry | Side | Entry price | Exit | Exit price | Capital basis | Gross notional | Outcome | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-23 14:30:00+00:00 | LONG | 71.30 | 2026-09-23T20:00:00+00:00 | 70.40 | $100,000.00 | $400,000.00 | MISS | $-5,181.06 |
| 2026-09-21 14:30:00+00:00 | LONG | 72.46 | 2026-09-21T20:00:00+00:00 | 71.99 | $100,000.00 | $400,000.00 | MISS | $-2,754.54 |
| 2026-09-18 14:30:00+00:00 | LONG | 72.41 | 2026-09-18T20:00:00+00:00 | 72.72 | $100,000.00 | $400,000.00 | HIT | $+1,552.46 |
| 2026-09-16 14:30:00+00:00 | LONG | 73.64 | 2026-09-16T20:00:00+00:00 | 72.76 | $100,000.00 | $400,000.00 | MISS | $-4,913.17 |
| 2026-09-10 14:30:00+00:00 | LONG | 73.01 | 2026-09-10T20:00:00+00:00 | 73.82 | $100,000.00 | $400,000.00 | HIT | $+4,277.73 |
| 2026-09-09 14:30:00+00:00 | LONG | 73.95 | 2026-09-09T20:00:00+00:00 | 73.43 | $100,000.00 | $400,000.00 | MISS | $-2,945.66 |
| 2026-09-08 14:30:00+00:00 | LONG | 74.70 | 2026-09-08T20:00:00+00:00 | 74.33 | $100,000.00 | $400,000.00 | MISS | $-2,141.23 |
| 2026-09-04 14:30:00+00:00 | LONG | 75.25 | 2026-09-04T20:00:00+00:00 | 75.27 | $100,000.00 | $400,000.00 | MISS | $-53.71 |
| 2026-09-01 14:30:00+00:00 | LONG | 73.51 | 2026-09-01T20:00:00+00:00 | 72.64 | $100,000.00 | $400,000.00 | MISS | $-4,894.06 |
| 2026-08-31 14:30:00+00:00 | LONG | 73.55 | 2026-08-31T20:00:00+00:00 | 73.58 | $100,000.00 | $400,000.00 | MISS | $-9.35 |
| 2026-08-27 14:30:00+00:00 | LONG | 73.50 | 2026-08-27T20:00:00+00:00 | 74.36 | $100,000.00 | $400,000.00 | HIT | $+4,547.79 |
| 2026-08-20 14:30:00+00:00 | LONG | 74.90 | 2026-08-20T20:00:00+00:00 | 74.74 | $100,000.00 | $400,000.00 | MISS | $-1,014.49 |
| 2026-08-19 14:30:00+00:00 | SHORT | 76.24 | 2026-08-19T20:00:00+00:00 | 75.02 | $100,000.00 | $400,000.00 | HIT | $+6,240.85 |
| 2026-08-18 14:30:00+00:00 | SHORT | 77.12 | 2026-08-18T20:00:00+00:00 | 76.85 | $100,000.00 | $400,000.00 | HIT | $+1,292.18 |
Capital basis is allocated paper equity. Gross notional uses the exposure stored with that exact fill; legacy fills with no recorded exposure are shown as unknown. A new semantic paper generation archives the prior run and restarts the forward clock.
Leverage reality check
The headline Buy & Hold card is the familiar 1x adjusted-price reference. A 4x strategy must also beat this 4x daily-reset reference before leverage-adjusted outperformance can be claimed. Neither comparison is frozen qualification evidence.
Retrospective diagnostic
Parameters and leverage were reviewed after this entire historical sample was visible. It cannot award AI-qualified status.
Candles and execution signals
Shows the latest 120 available bars. BUY/SELL marks strategy entries and exits whose timestamps fall in this visible window.
Historical equity curve
Compounds each encoded net trade sequentially, including the strategy's declared exposure and modeled costs. The forward ledger starts only after deployment.
Backtest specification
This was selected retrospectively from a broad search. Four-times exposure can cause severe losses, Yahoo offers only about 730 days of hourly history, and forward qualification is still pending.
Historical transactions
HIT = profitable after the 4 bps cost assumption; MISS = loss after costs; FLAT = break-even. Showing the most recent 100 of 199 transactions.
| Entry | Side | Entry price | Exit | Exit price | Outcome | Net return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-23 14:30:00+00:00 | LONG | 71.30 | 2026-09-23T20:00:00+00:00 | 70.40 | MISS | -5.181% |
| 2026-09-21 14:30:00+00:00 | LONG | 72.46 | 2026-09-21T20:00:00+00:00 | 71.99 | MISS | -2.755% |
| 2026-09-18 14:30:00+00:00 | LONG | 72.41 | 2026-09-18T20:00:00+00:00 | 72.72 | HIT | +1.552% |
| 2026-09-16 14:30:00+00:00 | LONG | 73.64 | 2026-09-16T20:00:00+00:00 | 72.76 | MISS | -4.913% |
| 2026-09-10 14:30:00+00:00 | LONG | 73.01 | 2026-09-10T20:00:00+00:00 | 73.82 | HIT | +4.278% |
| 2026-09-09 14:30:00+00:00 | LONG | 73.95 | 2026-09-09T20:00:00+00:00 | 73.43 | MISS | -2.946% |
| 2026-09-08 14:30:00+00:00 | LONG | 74.70 | 2026-09-08T20:00:00+00:00 | 74.33 | MISS | -2.141% |
| 2026-09-04 14:30:00+00:00 | LONG | 75.25 | 2026-09-04T20:00:00+00:00 | 75.27 | MISS | -0.054% |
| 2026-09-01 14:30:00+00:00 | LONG | 73.51 | 2026-09-01T20:00:00+00:00 | 72.64 | MISS | -4.894% |
| 2026-08-31 14:30:00+00:00 | LONG | 73.55 | 2026-08-31T20:00:00+00:00 | 73.58 | MISS | -0.009% |
| 2026-08-27 14:30:00+00:00 | LONG | 73.50 | 2026-08-27T20:00:00+00:00 | 74.36 | HIT | +4.548% |
| 2026-08-20 14:30:00+00:00 | LONG | 74.90 | 2026-08-20T20:00:00+00:00 | 74.74 | MISS | -1.014% |
| 2026-08-19 14:30:00+00:00 | SHORT | 76.24 | 2026-08-19T20:00:00+00:00 | 75.02 | HIT | +6.241% |
| 2026-08-18 14:30:00+00:00 | SHORT | 77.12 | 2026-08-18T20:00:00+00:00 | 76.85 | HIT | +1.292% |
| 2026-08-13 14:30:00+00:00 | SHORT | 78.07 | 2026-08-13T20:00:00+00:00 | 77.67 | HIT | +1.864% |
| 2026-08-10 14:30:00+00:00 | LONG | 76.11 | 2026-08-10T20:00:00+00:00 | 76.04 | MISS | -0.554% |
| 2026-08-06 14:30:00+00:00 | SHORT | 77.50 | 2026-08-06T20:00:00+00:00 | 76.50 | HIT | +4.976% |
| 2026-08-05 14:30:00+00:00 | SHORT | 77.88 | 2026-08-05T20:00:00+00:00 | 77.34 | HIT | +2.614% |
| 2026-08-03 14:30:00+00:00 | SHORT | 76.92 | 2026-08-03T20:00:00+00:00 | 77.07 | MISS | -0.966% |
| 2026-07-31 14:30:00+00:00 | SHORT | 75.75 | 2026-07-31T20:00:00+00:00 | 76.07 | MISS | -1.850% |
| 2026-07-30 14:30:00+00:00 | SHORT | 76.15 | 2026-07-30T20:00:00+00:00 | 75.90 | HIT | +1.153% |
| 2026-07-28 14:30:00+00:00 | SHORT | 76.22 | 2026-07-28T20:00:00+00:00 | 76.77 | MISS | -3.020% |
| 2026-07-27 14:30:00+00:00 | SHORT | 75.93 | 2026-07-27T20:00:00+00:00 | 75.53 | HIT | +1.947% |
| 2026-07-15 14:30:00+00:00 | SHORT | 75.54 | 2026-07-15T20:00:00+00:00 | 75.79 | MISS | -1.484% |
| 2026-07-07 14:30:00+00:00 | SHORT | 75.76 | 2026-07-07T20:00:00+00:00 | 75.09 | HIT | +3.378% |
| 2026-07-02 14:30:00+00:00 | SHORT | 75.69 | 2026-07-02T20:00:00+00:00 | 75.04 | HIT | +3.275% |
| 2026-06-26 14:30:00+00:00 | SHORT | 74.89 | 2026-06-26T20:00:00+00:00 | 75.14 | MISS | -1.522% |
| 2026-06-18 14:30:00+00:00 | SHORT | 71.61 | 2026-06-18T20:00:00+00:00 | 71.68 | MISS | -0.523% |
| 2026-06-16 14:30:00+00:00 | SHORT | 72.57 | 2026-06-16T20:00:00+00:00 | 72.51 | HIT | +0.198% |
| 2026-06-15 14:30:00+00:00 | SHORT | 73.54 | 2026-06-15T20:00:00+00:00 | 72.24 | HIT | +6.884% |
| 2026-06-12 14:30:00+00:00 | SHORT | 73.16 | 2026-06-12T20:00:00+00:00 | 73.44 | MISS | -1.688% |
| 2026-06-11 14:30:00+00:00 | SHORT | 71.42 | 2026-06-11T20:00:00+00:00 | 72.32 | MISS | -5.201% |
| 2026-06-10 14:30:00+00:00 | SHORT | 72.21 | 2026-06-10T20:00:00+00:00 | 71.62 | HIT | +3.081% |
| 2026-06-09 14:30:00+00:00 | SHORT | 72.03 | 2026-06-09T20:00:00+00:00 | 71.26 | HIT | +4.116% |
| 2026-06-08 14:30:00+00:00 | SHORT | 70.71 | 2026-06-08T20:00:00+00:00 | 70.35 | HIT | +1.905% |
| 2026-06-02 14:30:00+00:00 | LONG | 69.12 | 2026-06-02T20:00:00+00:00 | 69.53 | HIT | +2.184% |
| 2026-05-26 14:30:00+00:00 | SHORT | 70.07 | 2026-05-26T20:00:00+00:00 | 70.26 | MISS | -1.216% |
| 2026-05-19 14:30:00+00:00 | LONG | 67.58 | 2026-05-19T20:00:00+00:00 | 67.58 | MISS | -0.160% |
| 2026-05-15 14:30:00+00:00 | LONG | 67.06 | 2026-05-15T20:00:00+00:00 | 66.96 | MISS | -0.756% |
| 2026-05-13 14:30:00+00:00 | LONG | 67.78 | 2026-05-13T20:00:00+00:00 | 67.16 | MISS | -3.790% |
| 2026-05-11 14:30:00+00:00 | SHORT | 69.24 | 2026-05-11T20:00:00+00:00 | 68.57 | HIT | +3.711% |
| 2026-05-08 14:30:00+00:00 | SHORT | 70.17 | 2026-05-08T20:00:00+00:00 | 69.87 | HIT | +1.550% |
| 2026-05-07 14:30:00+00:00 | SHORT | 70.42 | 2026-05-07T20:00:00+00:00 | 69.95 | HIT | +2.510% |
| 2026-05-06 14:30:00+00:00 | SHORT | 70.77 | 2026-05-06T20:00:00+00:00 | 70.68 | HIT | +0.349% |
| 2026-04-28 14:30:00+00:00 | SHORT | 70.35 | 2026-04-28T20:00:00+00:00 | 70.38 | MISS | -0.331% |
| 2026-04-27 14:30:00+00:00 | SHORT | 69.50 | 2026-04-27T20:00:00+00:00 | 70.04 | MISS | -3.268% |
| 2026-04-23 14:30:00+00:00 | SHORT | 69.90 | 2026-04-23T20:00:00+00:00 | 70.03 | MISS | -0.904% |
| 2026-04-22 14:30:00+00:00 | SHORT | 69.75 | 2026-04-22T20:00:00+00:00 | 69.24 | HIT | +2.765% |
| 2026-04-17 14:30:00+00:00 | SHORT | 70.90 | 2026-04-17T20:00:00+00:00 | 70.37 | HIT | +2.853% |
| 2026-04-08 14:30:00+00:00 | SHORT | 68.99 | 2026-04-08T20:00:00+00:00 | 68.68 | HIT | +1.637% |
| 2026-03-27 14:30:00+00:00 | LONG | 63.87 | 2026-03-27T20:00:00+00:00 | 63.36 | MISS | -3.354% |
| 2026-03-26 14:30:00+00:00 | LONG | 64.51 | 2026-03-26T20:00:00+00:00 | 64.47 | MISS | -0.377% |
| 2026-03-24 14:30:00+00:00 | LONG | 63.79 | 2026-03-24T20:00:00+00:00 | 64.33 | HIT | +3.226% |
| 2026-03-19 14:30:00+00:00 | LONG | 61.89 | 2026-03-19T20:00:00+00:00 | 63.19 | HIT | +8.242% |
| 2026-03-12 14:30:00+00:00 | LONG | 62.71 | 2026-03-12T20:00:00+00:00 | 63.47 | HIT | +4.656% |
| 2026-03-11 14:30:00+00:00 | LONG | 63.63 | 2026-03-11T20:00:00+00:00 | 63.98 | HIT | +2.040% |
| 2026-03-09 14:30:00+00:00 | LONG | 62.68 | 2026-03-09T20:00:00+00:00 | 64.75 | HIT | +13.050% |
| 2026-03-06 15:30:00+00:00 | LONG | 64.11 | 2026-03-06T21:00:00+00:00 | 64.97 | HIT | +5.206% |
| 2026-03-05 15:30:00+00:00 | LONG | 66.54 | 2026-03-05T21:00:00+00:00 | 66.59 | HIT | +0.171% |
| 2026-01-29 15:30:00+00:00 | SHORT | 68.53 | 2026-01-29T21:00:00+00:00 | 69.02 | MISS | -3.020% |
| 2025-11-25 15:30:00+00:00 | SHORT | 63.16 | 2025-11-25T21:00:00+00:00 | 63.41 | MISS | -1.743% |
| 2025-11-18 15:30:00+00:00 | LONG | 58.85 | 2025-11-18T21:00:00+00:00 | 59.15 | HIT | +1.913% |
| 2025-11-10 15:30:00+00:00 | SHORT | 61.04 | 2025-11-10T21:00:00+00:00 | 61.32 | MISS | -1.995% |
| 2025-11-07 15:30:00+00:00 | LONG | 60.35 | 2025-11-07T21:00:00+00:00 | 61.02 | HIT | +4.247% |
| 2025-11-06 15:30:00+00:00 | LONG | 60.28 | 2025-11-06T21:00:00+00:00 | 60.18 | MISS | -0.824% |
| 2025-11-04 15:30:00+00:00 | LONG | 59.90 | 2025-11-04T21:00:00+00:00 | 59.83 | MISS | -0.627% |
| 2025-11-03 15:30:00+00:00 | LONG | 59.22 | 2025-11-03T21:00:00+00:00 | 60.12 | HIT | +5.919% |
| 2025-10-31 14:30:00+00:00 | LONG | 59.72 | 2025-10-31T20:00:00+00:00 | 59.97 | HIT | +1.514% |
| 2025-10-30 14:30:00+00:00 | LONG | 60.48 | 2025-10-30T20:00:00+00:00 | 59.86 | MISS | -4.261% |
| 2025-10-29 14:30:00+00:00 | LONG | 60.41 | 2025-10-29T20:00:00+00:00 | 59.83 | MISS | -4.000% |
| 2025-10-21 14:30:00+00:00 | LONG | 60.34 | 2025-10-21T20:00:00+00:00 | 60.60 | HIT | +1.597% |
| 2025-10-16 14:30:00+00:00 | LONG | 59.59 | 2025-10-16T20:00:00+00:00 | 58.12 | MISS | -10.027% |
| 2025-10-14 14:30:00+00:00 | LONG | 61.84 | 2025-10-14T20:00:00+00:00 | 63.42 | HIT | +10.028% |
| 2025-10-01 14:30:00+00:00 | LONG | 62.93 | 2025-10-01T20:00:00+00:00 | 62.97 | HIT | +0.062% |
| 2025-09-25 14:30:00+00:00 | LONG | 63.78 | 2025-09-25T20:00:00+00:00 | 63.88 | HIT | +0.499% |
| 2025-09-15 14:30:00+00:00 | SHORT | 65.27 | 2025-09-15T20:00:00+00:00 | 64.35 | HIT | +5.478% |
| 2025-09-05 14:30:00+00:00 | SHORT | 65.48 | 2025-09-05T20:00:00+00:00 | 65.45 | HIT | +0.023% |
| 2025-09-04 14:30:00+00:00 | SHORT | 65.50 | 2025-09-04T20:00:00+00:00 | 66.11 | MISS | -3.916% |
| 2025-08-28 14:30:00+00:00 | SHORT | 65.57 | 2025-08-28T20:00:00+00:00 | 65.51 | HIT | +0.206% |
| 2025-08-22 14:30:00+00:00 | SHORT | 63.92 | 2025-08-22T20:00:00+00:00 | 64.82 | MISS | -5.760% |
| 2025-08-20 14:30:00+00:00 | SHORT | 61.72 | 2025-08-20T20:00:00+00:00 | 62.03 | MISS | -2.169% |
| 2025-08-15 14:30:00+00:00 | SHORT | 62.01 | 2025-08-15T20:00:00+00:00 | 61.60 | HIT | +2.485% |
| 2025-08-13 14:30:00+00:00 | SHORT | 62.12 | 2025-08-13T20:00:00+00:00 | 62.64 | MISS | -3.508% |
| 2025-07-02 14:30:00+00:00 | SHORT | 61.56 | 2025-07-02T20:00:00+00:00 | 62.52 | MISS | -6.398% |
| 2025-06-30 14:30:00+00:00 | SHORT | 59.81 | 2025-06-30T20:00:00+00:00 | 59.42 | HIT | +2.448% |
| 2025-06-27 14:30:00+00:00 | SHORT | 59.74 | 2025-06-27T20:00:00+00:00 | 59.44 | HIT | +1.915% |
| 2025-06-26 14:30:00+00:00 | SHORT | 58.88 | 2025-06-26T20:00:00+00:00 | 59.50 | MISS | -4.372% |
| 2025-06-24 14:30:00+00:00 | SHORT | 58.89 | 2025-06-24T20:00:00+00:00 | 58.42 | HIT | +3.032% |
| 2025-06-23 14:30:00+00:00 | LONG | 57.22 | 2025-06-23T20:00:00+00:00 | 57.90 | HIT | +4.594% |
| 2025-06-18 14:30:00+00:00 | LONG | 56.64 | 2025-06-18T20:00:00+00:00 | 56.53 | MISS | -0.937% |
| 2025-06-17 14:30:00+00:00 | LONG | 56.38 | 2025-06-17T20:00:00+00:00 | 55.79 | MISS | -4.346% |
| 2025-06-11 14:30:00+00:00 | SHORT | 59.00 | 2025-06-11T20:00:00+00:00 | 58.13 | HIT | +5.704% |
| 2025-06-10 14:30:00+00:00 | SHORT | 58.76 | 2025-06-10T20:00:00+00:00 | 58.94 | MISS | -1.351% |
| 2025-06-09 14:30:00+00:00 | SHORT | 58.60 | 2025-06-09T20:00:00+00:00 | 58.30 | HIT | +1.922% |
| 2025-06-03 14:30:00+00:00 | LONG | 56.82 | 2025-06-03T20:00:00+00:00 | 57.35 | HIT | +3.606% |
| 2025-05-30 14:30:00+00:00 | LONG | 57.03 | 2025-05-30T20:00:00+00:00 | 56.84 | MISS | -1.528% |
| 2025-05-23 14:30:00+00:00 | LONG | 55.92 | 2025-05-23T20:00:00+00:00 | 56.38 | HIT | +3.130% |
| 2025-05-22 14:30:00+00:00 | LONG | 56.51 | 2025-05-22T20:00:00+00:00 | 56.65 | HIT | +0.866% |
| 2025-05-12 14:30:00+00:00 | SHORT | 59.30 | 2025-05-12T20:00:00+00:00 | 59.19 | HIT | +0.582% |
| 2025-05-08 14:30:00+00:00 | SHORT | 56.29 | 2025-05-08T20:00:00+00:00 | 56.86 | MISS | -4.210% |