← ALL STRATEGIES · ai_kre_gap_fade_selective

AI KRE gap fade — selective

AI GENERATED STRATEGY
RUNNING

A lower-frequency version of the AI regional-bank gap fade that requires a full median-sized trend-extending gap before taking 4× opposite exposure.

DEFAULT MARKETKRE
BAR INTERVAL1h
GROSS EXPOSURE4.0x
PAPER CASH$93,498.63
REALIZED P&L$-6,501.37
PROMOTION AUDIT

AI-generated · forward qualification pending

AI provenance identifies who designed this candidate. It remains unqualified until a fresh frozen period passes every profitability, benchmark, cost and trade-count gate.

NOT TESTEDLocked evidenceRequires 100+ trades over 180+ untouched calendar days.
NOT TESTEDCost survivalMust beat exposure-matched Buy & Hold at 4 and 8 bps.
NOT TESTEDIntraday flatnessEvery position must close within its trading session.
NOT TESTEDImmutable provenanceExact algorithm, dataset, and trade-ledger SHA-256 fingerprints are mandatory.

How the strategy works

This variant uses the same causal trend-aligned gap fade but requires the gap to equal or exceed the full trailing-20 median absolute gap. Waiting until 10:30 ET avoids an unknowable opening fill and separates the overnight imbalance from the regular-session trade. Every position is closed the same day.

Concrete example

If KRE is in a prior-20-session downtrend and gaps down 1.2% while its trailing median absolute gap is 0.8%, the setup qualifies. The model waits one hour, buys at the 10:30 ET open, and exits at the final regular-session close.

Exact algorithm

Required data: ohlcv

Where it may work—and where it can fail

EXPECTED BEST CONDITIONS

Larger trend-extending gaps that lose momentum after the opening hour without developing into a full news-driven trend day.

IMPORTANT CONTEXT

The threshold and leverage were evaluated on already-observed data. It is an AI-generated forward-paper candidate, not an AI-qualified or guaranteed-profitable strategy.

Main risks

“Best conditions” is an interpretation of the strategy's mechanism, not an additional course entry rule and not a performance guarantee.

Forward paper transactions

LEDGER START2026-08-16T22:55:43.645807+00:00
PAPER VERSIONv2 · c154835b93b8
STATUSrunning
STATUS DETAILNo issue
EntrySideEntry priceExitExit priceCapital basisGross notionalOutcomeP&L
2026-09-09 14:30:00+00:00LONG73.952026-09-09T20:00:00+00:0073.43$100,000.00$400,000.00MISS$-2,945.66
2026-09-08 14:30:00+00:00LONG74.702026-09-08T20:00:00+00:0074.33$100,000.00$400,000.00MISS$-2,141.23
2026-09-04 14:30:00+00:00LONG75.252026-09-04T20:00:00+00:0075.27$100,000.00$400,000.00MISS$-53.71
2026-09-01 14:30:00+00:00LONG73.512026-09-01T20:00:00+00:0072.64$100,000.00$400,000.00MISS$-4,894.06
2026-08-27 14:30:00+00:00LONG73.502026-08-27T20:00:00+00:0074.36$100,000.00$400,000.00HIT$+4,547.79
2026-08-20 14:30:00+00:00LONG74.902026-08-20T20:00:00+00:0074.74$100,000.00$400,000.00MISS$-1,014.49

Capital basis is allocated paper equity. Gross notional uses the exposure stored with that exact fill; legacy fills with no recorded exposure are shown as unknown. A new semantic paper generation archives the prior run and restarts the forward clock.

TRADES132
AVERAGE TRADE+113.72 bps
STRATEGY 4.0x / BUY & HOLD 1x+285.15% / +68.78%
VS 1x REFERENCE+216.38% · ABOVE 1x REFERENCE · CHECK LEVERAGE BELOW
DRAWDOWN: STRATEGY / B&H+15.55% / +28.20%

Leverage reality check

STRATEGY (4.0x)+285.15%
DAILY-RESET B&H (4.0x)+132.28%
EXPOSURE-MATCHED DIFFERENCE+152.87%
DRAWDOWN: STRATEGY / MATCHED+15.55% / +79.25%

The headline Buy & Hold card is the familiar 1x adjusted-price reference. A 4x strategy must also beat this 4x daily-reset reference before leverage-adjusted outperformance can be claimed. Neither comparison is frozen qualification evidence.

HITS / MISSES80 / 52
HIT RATE+60.61%
AVG HIT / MISS+3.64% / -2.71%
LONGEST MISS STREAK4

Retrospective diagnostic

Parameters and leverage were reviewed after this entire historical sample was visible. It cannot award AI-qualified status.

FINAL 30% TRADES40
STRATEGY / B&H 1x+46.41% / +22.46%
FINAL 30% VS B&H+23.95%
FINAL 30% HIT RATE+57.50%
FINAL 30% DRAWDOWN+9.72%
INDEPENDENT EVIDENCE?No

Candles and execution signals

▲ BUY▼ SELLHover a candle or marker for exact values
75.3573.7972.2370.6769.112026-09-04T18:30:00+00:00 O 75.25 H 75.32 L 75.03 C 75.132026-09-04T19:30:00+00:00 O 75.12 H 75.35 L 75.12 C 75.272026-09-08T13:30:00+00:00 O 75.00 H 75.25 L 74.68 C 74.682026-09-08T14:30:00+00:00 O 74.70 H 74.83 L 74.56 C 74.692026-09-08T15:30:00+00:00 O 74.69 H 74.88 L 74.66 C 74.862026-09-08T16:30:00+00:00 O 74.86 H 74.87 L 74.56 C 74.682026-09-08T17:30:00+00:00 O 74.69 H 74.80 L 74.68 C 74.762026-09-08T18:30:00+00:00 O 74.76 H 74.80 L 74.46 C 74.582026-09-08T19:30:00+00:00 O 74.58 H 74.64 L 74.25 C 74.332026-09-09T13:30:00+00:00 O 73.62 H 73.99 L 73.32 C 73.942026-09-09T14:30:00+00:00 O 73.95 H 74.17 L 73.46 C 73.642026-09-09T15:30:00+00:00 O 73.64 H 73.64 L 73.22 C 73.252026-09-09T16:30:00+00:00 O 73.25 H 73.26 L 73.12 C 73.182026-09-09T17:30:00+00:00 O 73.18 H 73.40 L 73.12 C 73.392026-09-09T18:30:00+00:00 O 73.39 H 73.40 L 73.29 C 73.322026-09-09T19:30:00+00:00 O 73.32 H 73.47 L 73.30 C 73.432026-09-10T13:30:00+00:00 O 73.20 H 73.46 L 72.63 C 73.012026-09-10T14:30:00+00:00 O 73.01 H 73.20 L 72.92 C 73.142026-09-10T15:30:00+00:00 O 73.15 H 73.36 L 73.13 C 73.332026-09-10T16:30:00+00:00 O 73.33 H 73.36 L 73.14 C 73.332026-09-10T17:30:00+00:00 O 73.33 H 73.46 L 73.31 C 73.442026-09-10T18:30:00+00:00 O 73.44 H 73.48 L 73.34 C 73.472026-09-10T19:30:00+00:00 O 73.48 H 73.84 L 73.46 C 73.822026-09-11T13:30:00+00:00 O 74.54 H 74.85 L 73.13 C 73.152026-09-11T14:30:00+00:00 O 73.15 H 73.70 L 73.14 C 73.592026-09-11T15:30:00+00:00 O 73.58 H 73.82 L 73.57 C 73.772026-09-11T16:30:00+00:00 O 73.77 H 73.93 L 73.75 C 73.812026-09-11T17:30:00+00:00 O 73.81 H 73.86 L 73.68 C 73.822026-09-11T18:30:00+00:00 O 73.82 H 73.90 L 73.72 C 73.782026-09-11T19:30:00+00:00 O 73.78 H 73.96 L 73.75 C 73.902026-09-14T13:30:00+00:00 O 73.86 H 74.68 L 73.68 C 74.352026-09-14T14:30:00+00:00 O 74.36 H 74.43 L 73.81 C 73.852026-09-14T15:30:00+00:00 O 73.85 H 74.43 L 73.78 C 74.422026-09-14T16:30:00+00:00 O 74.42 H 74.63 L 74.03 C 74.172026-09-14T17:30:00+00:00 O 74.17 H 74.29 L 73.88 C 74.192026-09-14T18:30:00+00:00 O 74.20 H 74.31 L 74.16 C 74.162026-09-14T19:30:00+00:00 O 74.16 H 74.18 L 74.05 C 74.122026-09-15T13:30:00+00:00 O 74.08 H 74.72 L 74.04 C 74.622026-09-15T14:30:00+00:00 O 74.61 H 74.71 L 74.07 C 74.142026-09-15T15:30:00+00:00 O 74.18 H 74.25 L 73.74 C 74.032026-09-15T16:30:00+00:00 O 74.03 H 74.08 L 73.85 C 73.902026-09-15T17:30:00+00:00 O 73.90 H 74.18 L 73.88 C 74.082026-09-15T18:30:00+00:00 O 74.08 H 74.21 L 74.01 C 74.042026-09-15T19:30:00+00:00 O 74.04 H 74.07 L 73.93 C 74.072026-09-16T13:30:00+00:00 O 73.93 H 74.17 L 73.51 C 73.642026-09-16T14:30:00+00:00 O 73.64 H 74.02 L 73.61 C 73.692026-09-16T15:30:00+00:00 O 73.69 H 73.83 L 73.62 C 73.722026-09-16T16:30:00+00:00 O 73.72 H 73.92 L 73.60 C 73.922026-09-16T17:30:00+00:00 O 73.92 H 73.95 L 73.18 C 73.272026-09-16T18:30:00+00:00 O 73.28 H 73.31 L 71.58 C 71.952026-09-16T19:30:00+00:00 O 71.94 H 72.79 L 71.92 C 72.762026-09-17T13:30:00+00:00 O 73.53 H 73.79 L 72.57 C 72.792026-09-17T14:30:00+00:00 O 72.79 H 73.10 L 72.75 C 73.012026-09-17T15:30:00+00:00 O 73.00 H 73.34 L 73.00 C 73.332026-09-17T16:30:00+00:00 O 73.33 H 73.36 L 73.14 C 73.182026-09-17T17:30:00+00:00 O 73.18 H 73.30 L 73.07 C 73.072026-09-17T18:30:00+00:00 O 73.07 H 73.07 L 72.81 C 72.832026-09-17T19:30:00+00:00 O 72.84 H 72.88 L 72.72 C 72.772026-09-18T13:30:00+00:00 O 72.61 H 72.64 L 71.99 C 72.412026-09-18T14:30:00+00:00 O 72.41 H 72.50 L 72.10 C 72.132026-09-18T15:30:00+00:00 O 72.14 H 72.25 L 72.07 C 72.142026-09-18T16:30:00+00:00 O 72.14 H 72.57 L 72.14 C 72.562026-09-18T17:30:00+00:00 O 72.56 H 72.64 L 72.49 C 72.542026-09-18T18:30:00+00:00 O 72.54 H 72.64 L 72.50 C 72.532026-09-18T19:30:00+00:00 O 72.53 H 72.90 L 72.51 C 72.722026-09-21T13:30:00+00:00 O 72.59 H 72.87 L 72.33 C 72.452026-09-21T14:30:00+00:00 O 72.46 H 72.50 L 72.18 C 72.282026-09-21T15:30:00+00:00 O 72.28 H 72.29 L 72.09 C 72.122026-09-21T16:30:00+00:00 O 72.13 H 72.33 L 72.11 C 72.172026-09-21T17:30:00+00:00 O 72.17 H 72.25 L 72.01 C 72.222026-09-21T18:30:00+00:00 O 72.22 H 72.36 L 72.18 C 72.202026-09-21T19:30:00+00:00 O 72.21 H 72.29 L 71.97 C 71.992026-09-22T13:30:00+00:00 O 72.45 H 72.68 L 71.96 C 71.962026-09-22T14:30:00+00:00 O 71.97 H 71.99 L 71.33 C 71.332026-09-22T15:30:00+00:00 O 71.33 H 71.64 L 71.22 C 71.502026-09-22T16:30:00+00:00 O 71.50 H 71.57 L 71.43 C 71.562026-09-22T17:30:00+00:00 O 71.57 H 71.97 L 71.57 C 71.742026-09-22T18:30:00+00:00 O 71.74 H 71.80 L 71.54 C 71.632026-09-22T19:30:00+00:00 O 71.62 H 71.72 L 71.17 C 71.202026-09-23T13:30:00+00:00 O 71.02 H 71.37 L 70.82 C 71.292026-09-23T14:30:00+00:00 O 71.30 H 71.38 L 71.02 C 71.032026-09-23T15:30:00+00:00 O 71.02 H 71.06 L 70.89 C 71.012026-09-23T16:30:00+00:00 O 71.01 H 71.08 L 70.81 C 70.992026-09-23T17:30:00+00:00 O 70.99 H 71.03 L 70.82 C 70.902026-09-23T18:30:00+00:00 O 70.90 H 70.90 L 70.64 C 70.672026-09-23T19:30:00+00:00 O 70.67 H 70.70 L 70.36 C 70.402026-09-24T13:30:00+00:00 O 70.61 H 70.81 L 70.35 C 70.552026-09-24T14:30:00+00:00 O 70.54 H 70.62 L 70.09 C 70.322026-09-24T15:30:00+00:00 O 70.32 H 70.90 L 70.21 C 70.642026-09-24T16:30:00+00:00 O 70.64 H 70.94 L 70.59 C 70.692026-09-24T17:30:00+00:00 O 70.69 H 70.91 L 70.60 C 70.872026-09-24T18:30:00+00:00 O 70.86 H 70.89 L 70.69 C 70.832026-09-24T19:30:00+00:00 O 70.83 H 71.10 L 70.82 C 70.942026-09-25T13:30:00+00:00 O 71.22 H 71.75 L 71.16 C 71.452026-09-25T14:30:00+00:00 O 71.46 H 71.60 L 71.25 C 71.362026-09-25T15:30:00+00:00 O 71.36 H 71.93 L 71.19 C 71.752026-09-25T16:30:00+00:00 O 71.75 H 71.83 L 71.66 C 71.702026-09-25T17:30:00+00:00 O 71.71 H 71.71 L 71.54 C 71.652026-09-25T18:30:00+00:00 O 71.67 H 71.79 L 71.61 C 71.682026-09-25T19:30:00+00:00 O 71.68 H 71.78 L 71.50 C 71.532026-09-28T13:30:00+00:00 O 71.48 H 71.56 L 70.82 C 71.112026-09-28T14:30:00+00:00 O 71.10 H 71.10 L 70.60 C 70.712026-09-28T15:30:00+00:00 O 70.71 H 71.10 L 70.61 C 71.012026-09-28T16:30:00+00:00 O 71.01 H 71.25 L 70.72 C 70.922026-09-28T17:30:00+00:00 O 70.92 H 71.04 L 70.82 C 70.852026-09-28T18:30:00+00:00 O 70.84 H 70.87 L 70.56 C 70.652026-09-28T19:30:00+00:00 O 70.66 H 70.71 L 70.53 C 70.592026-09-29T13:30:00+00:00 O 70.66 H 70.98 L 70.18 C 70.212026-09-29T14:30:00+00:00 O 70.23 H 70.27 L 69.65 C 69.792026-09-29T15:30:00+00:00 O 69.79 H 69.83 L 69.45 C 69.482026-09-29T16:30:00+00:00 O 69.48 H 69.74 L 69.48 C 69.602026-09-29T17:30:00+00:00 O 69.60 H 69.75 L 69.51 C 69.692026-09-29T18:30:00+00:00 O 69.68 H 69.82 L 69.68 C 69.792026-09-29T19:30:00+00:00 O 69.79 H 69.90 L 69.73 C 69.832026-09-30T13:30:00+00:00 O 69.82 H 70.26 L 69.52 C 69.662026-09-30T14:30:00+00:00 O 69.65 H 69.80 L 69.52 C 69.592026-09-30T15:30:00+00:00 O 69.58 H 69.59 L 69.32 C 69.322026-09-30T16:30:00+00:00 O 69.31 H 69.41 L 69.12 C 69.222026-09-30T17:30:00+00:00 O 69.24 H 69.32 L 69.11 C 69.202026-09-30T18:30:00+00:00 O 69.22 H 69.24 L 69.18 C 69.22EXIT SELL · 2026-09-04T20:00:00+00:00 · 75.27SELLENTRY BUY · 2026-09-08 14:30:00+00:00 · 74.70BUYEXIT SELL · 2026-09-08T20:00:00+00:00 · 74.33SELLENTRY BUY · 2026-09-09 14:30:00+00:00 · 73.95BUYEXIT SELL · 2026-09-09T20:00:00+00:00 · 73.43SELL2026-09-042026-09-30

Shows the latest 120 available bars. BUY/SELL marks strategy entries and exits whose timestamps fall in this visible window.

Historical equity curve

Compounds each encoded net trade sequentially, including the strategy's declared exposure and modeled costs. The forward ledger starts only after deployment.

Backtest specification

STATUS / REPLICATIONcompleted · ai_retrospective_candidate_next_hour_execution
DATAYahoo Finance (delayed/unofficial)
MARKETKRE · 1h
HISTORY2023-11-01T13:30:00+00:00
2026-09-30T18:30:00+00:00
WIN RATE+60.61%
PROFIT FACTOR2.07

The threshold and leverage were evaluated on already-observed data. It is an AI-generated forward-paper candidate, not an AI-qualified or guaranteed-profitable strategy.

Historical transactions

Download JSONDownload all transactions as CSV

HIT = profitable after the 4 bps cost assumption; MISS = loss after costs; FLAT = break-even. Showing the most recent 100 of 132 transactions.

EntrySideEntry priceExitExit priceOutcomeNet return
2026-09-09 14:30:00+00:00LONG73.952026-09-09T20:00:00+00:0073.43MISS-2.946%
2026-09-08 14:30:00+00:00LONG74.702026-09-08T20:00:00+00:0074.33MISS-2.141%
2026-09-04 14:30:00+00:00LONG75.252026-09-04T20:00:00+00:0075.27MISS-0.054%
2026-09-01 14:30:00+00:00LONG73.512026-09-01T20:00:00+00:0072.64MISS-4.894%
2026-08-27 14:30:00+00:00LONG73.502026-08-27T20:00:00+00:0074.36HIT+4.548%
2026-08-20 14:30:00+00:00LONG74.902026-08-20T20:00:00+00:0074.74MISS-1.014%
2026-08-13 14:30:00+00:00SHORT78.072026-08-13T20:00:00+00:0077.67HIT+1.864%
2026-08-10 14:30:00+00:00LONG76.112026-08-10T20:00:00+00:0076.04MISS-0.554%
2026-08-06 14:30:00+00:00SHORT77.502026-08-06T20:00:00+00:0076.50HIT+4.976%
2026-08-05 14:30:00+00:00SHORT77.882026-08-05T20:00:00+00:0077.34HIT+2.614%
2026-08-03 14:30:00+00:00SHORT76.922026-08-03T20:00:00+00:0077.07MISS-0.966%
2026-07-30 14:30:00+00:00SHORT76.152026-07-30T20:00:00+00:0075.90HIT+1.153%
2026-07-28 14:30:00+00:00SHORT76.222026-07-28T20:00:00+00:0076.77MISS-3.020%
2026-07-27 14:30:00+00:00SHORT75.932026-07-27T20:00:00+00:0075.53HIT+1.947%
2026-07-02 14:30:00+00:00SHORT75.692026-07-02T20:00:00+00:0075.04HIT+3.275%
2026-06-18 14:30:00+00:00SHORT71.612026-06-18T20:00:00+00:0071.68MISS-0.523%
2026-06-16 14:30:00+00:00SHORT72.572026-06-16T20:00:00+00:0072.51HIT+0.198%
2026-06-15 14:30:00+00:00SHORT73.542026-06-15T20:00:00+00:0072.24HIT+6.884%
2026-06-12 14:30:00+00:00SHORT73.162026-06-12T20:00:00+00:0073.44MISS-1.688%
2026-06-11 14:30:00+00:00SHORT71.422026-06-11T20:00:00+00:0072.32MISS-5.201%
2026-06-10 14:30:00+00:00SHORT72.212026-06-10T20:00:00+00:0071.62HIT+3.081%
2026-06-09 14:30:00+00:00SHORT72.032026-06-09T20:00:00+00:0071.26HIT+4.116%
2026-06-08 14:30:00+00:00SHORT70.712026-06-08T20:00:00+00:0070.35HIT+1.905%
2026-06-02 14:30:00+00:00LONG69.122026-06-02T20:00:00+00:0069.53HIT+2.184%
2026-05-26 14:30:00+00:00SHORT70.072026-05-26T20:00:00+00:0070.26MISS-1.216%
2026-05-19 14:30:00+00:00LONG67.582026-05-19T20:00:00+00:0067.58MISS-0.160%
2026-05-13 14:30:00+00:00LONG67.782026-05-13T20:00:00+00:0067.16MISS-3.790%
2026-05-06 14:30:00+00:00SHORT70.772026-05-06T20:00:00+00:0070.68HIT+0.349%
2026-04-28 14:30:00+00:00SHORT70.352026-04-28T20:00:00+00:0070.38MISS-0.331%
2026-04-17 14:30:00+00:00SHORT70.902026-04-17T20:00:00+00:0070.37HIT+2.853%
2026-04-08 14:30:00+00:00SHORT68.992026-04-08T20:00:00+00:0068.68HIT+1.637%
2026-03-24 14:30:00+00:00LONG63.792026-03-24T20:00:00+00:0064.33HIT+3.226%
2026-03-12 14:30:00+00:00LONG62.712026-03-12T20:00:00+00:0063.47HIT+4.656%
2026-03-11 14:30:00+00:00LONG63.632026-03-11T20:00:00+00:0063.98HIT+2.040%
2026-03-09 14:30:00+00:00LONG62.682026-03-09T20:00:00+00:0064.75HIT+13.050%
2026-03-06 15:30:00+00:00LONG64.112026-03-06T21:00:00+00:0064.97HIT+5.206%
2026-03-05 15:30:00+00:00LONG66.542026-03-05T21:00:00+00:0066.59HIT+0.171%
2026-01-29 15:30:00+00:00SHORT68.532026-01-29T21:00:00+00:0069.02MISS-3.020%
2025-11-25 15:30:00+00:00SHORT63.162025-11-25T21:00:00+00:0063.41MISS-1.743%
2025-11-18 15:30:00+00:00LONG58.852025-11-18T21:00:00+00:0059.15HIT+1.913%
2025-11-04 15:30:00+00:00LONG59.902025-11-04T21:00:00+00:0059.83MISS-0.627%
2025-10-31 14:30:00+00:00LONG59.722025-10-31T20:00:00+00:0059.97HIT+1.514%
2025-10-29 14:30:00+00:00LONG60.412025-10-29T20:00:00+00:0059.83MISS-4.000%
2025-10-16 14:30:00+00:00LONG59.592025-10-16T20:00:00+00:0058.12MISS-10.027%
2025-10-14 14:30:00+00:00LONG61.842025-10-14T20:00:00+00:0063.42HIT+10.028%
2025-10-01 14:30:00+00:00LONG62.932025-10-01T20:00:00+00:0062.97HIT+0.062%
2025-09-25 14:30:00+00:00LONG63.782025-09-25T20:00:00+00:0063.88HIT+0.499%
2025-09-04 14:30:00+00:00SHORT65.502025-09-04T20:00:00+00:0066.11MISS-3.916%
2025-08-28 14:30:00+00:00SHORT65.572025-08-28T20:00:00+00:0065.51HIT+0.206%
2025-08-13 14:30:00+00:00SHORT62.122025-08-13T20:00:00+00:0062.64MISS-3.508%
2025-06-30 14:30:00+00:00SHORT59.812025-06-30T20:00:00+00:0059.42HIT+2.448%
2025-06-24 14:30:00+00:00SHORT58.892025-06-24T20:00:00+00:0058.42HIT+3.032%
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