← ALL STRATEGIES · big_daddy_orb_continuation

Big Daddy ORB — continuation

RESEARCH STRATEGY
RUNNING

Trades the first close beyond the 09:30–09:45 New York opening range as a standalone continuation model.

DEFAULT MARKETMNQ=F
BAR INTERVAL15m
GROSS EXPOSURE1.0x
PAPER CASH$99,706.95
REALIZED P&L$-293.05
PROMOTION AUDIT

No AI qualification submitted

This strategy keeps its course or research provenance. A normal backtest snapshot cannot award the AI-generated label.

NOT TESTEDLocked evidenceRequires 100+ trades over 180+ untouched calendar days.
NOT TESTEDCost survivalMust beat exposure-matched Buy & Hold at 4 and 8 bps.
NOT TESTEDIntraday flatnessEvery position must close within its trading session.
NOT TESTEDImmutable provenanceExact algorithm, dataset, and trade-ledger SHA-256 fingerprints are mandatory.

How the strategy works

The first 15 minutes define the morning auction range. A completed candle closing outside that range indicates possible acceptance beyond it; the independent implementation waits for the next bar's open before entering, then risks to the range midpoint for an equal-sized target.

Concrete example

If MNQ's 09:30–09:45 range is 30,000–30,060 and the next candle closes at 30,070, a long signal exists. The following bar supplies the executable entry, with the midpoint near 30,030 as the stop and a 1R target calculated from the actual fill.

Published research

Zarattini, Barbon & Aziz — Opening Range Breakout

Published evidence motivates this candidate; it does not guarantee this implementation will pass our current sample.

Exact algorithm

Required data: ohlcv

Where it may work—and where it can fail

EXPECTED BEST CONDITIONS

High-participation trend sessions in which price accepts beyond a compact opening range.

IMPORTANT CONTEXT

The exact free-data sample is about 60 days. Next-bar execution and 4 bps costs are more conservative than the published TradingView defaults.

Main risks

“Best conditions” is an interpretation of the strategy's mechanism, not an additional course entry rule and not a performance guarantee.

Forward paper transactions

LEDGER START2026-08-16T22:55:39.708522+00:00
PAPER VERSIONv2 · 53e73add7653
STATUSrunning
STATUS DETAILNo issue
EntrySideEntry priceExitExit priceCapital basisGross notionalOutcomeP&L
2026-09-29T16:45:00+00:00SHORT30,518.752026-09-29T18:30:00+00:0030,635.25$10,000.00$10,000.00MISS$-42.17
2026-09-28T14:15:00+00:00SHORT30,521.502026-09-28T14:45:00+00:0030,362.62$10,000.00$10,000.00HIT$+48.05
2026-09-25T14:00:00+00:00LONG30,899.502026-09-25T14:00:00+00:0030,828.75$10,000.00$10,000.00MISS$-26.90
2026-09-24T14:30:00+00:00LONG30,630.252026-09-24T14:45:00+00:0030,548.50$10,000.00$10,000.00MISS$-30.69
2026-09-23T14:00:00+00:00SHORT30,846.502026-09-23T14:00:00+00:0030,735.62$10,000.00$10,000.00HIT$+31.94
2026-09-22T14:00:00+00:00LONG30,929.752026-09-22T19:15:00+00:0031,014.12$10,000.00$10,000.00HIT$+23.28
2026-09-21T14:00:00+00:00LONG30,416.502026-09-21T14:30:00+00:0030,554.38$10,000.00$10,000.00HIT$+41.33
2026-09-18T14:00:00+00:00SHORT29,776.752026-09-18T14:00:00+00:0029,731.50$10,000.00$10,000.00HIT$+11.20
2026-09-17T16:00:00+00:00LONG29,743.252026-09-17T19:45:00+00:0029,744.75$10,000.00$10,000.00MISS$-3.50
2026-09-16T14:00:00+00:00LONG29,479.252026-09-16T18:30:00+00:0029,398.12$10,000.00$10,000.00MISS$-31.52
2026-09-15T14:15:00+00:00SHORT29,343.502026-09-15T14:30:00+00:0029,280.25$10,000.00$10,000.00HIT$+17.56
2026-09-14T14:00:00+00:00LONG29,003.252026-09-14T15:30:00+00:0029,089.25$10,000.00$10,000.00HIT$+25.65
2026-09-11T14:00:00+00:00LONG29,472.752026-09-11T14:00:00+00:0029,393.75$10,000.00$10,000.00MISS$-30.80
2026-09-10T14:30:00+00:00LONG29,206.252026-09-10T19:45:00+00:0029,128.88$10,000.00$10,000.00MISS$-30.49
2026-09-09T14:00:00+00:00LONG29,558.252026-09-09T14:15:00+00:0029,461.75$10,000.00$10,000.00MISS$-36.65
2026-09-08T14:15:00+00:00SHORT29,462.252026-09-08T15:00:00+00:0029,576.50$10,000.00$10,000.00MISS$-42.78
2026-09-04T14:00:00+00:00LONG29,691.002026-09-04T14:00:00+00:0029,599.50$10,000.00$10,000.00MISS$-34.82
2026-09-03T15:00:00+00:00LONG29,363.502026-09-03T15:00:00+00:0029,447.50$10,000.00$10,000.00HIT$+24.61
2026-09-02T14:15:00+00:00LONG29,127.502026-09-02T14:15:00+00:0029,177.12$10,000.00$10,000.00HIT$+13.04
2026-09-01T14:30:00+00:00LONG29,165.252026-09-01T14:45:00+00:0029,240.25$10,000.00$10,000.00HIT$+21.72
2026-08-31T14:30:00+00:00SHORT29,374.502026-08-31T17:45:00+00:0029,453.50$10,000.00$10,000.00MISS$-30.89
2026-08-28T14:15:00+00:00SHORT29,536.502026-08-28T14:15:00+00:0029,631.88$10,000.00$10,000.00MISS$-36.29
2026-08-27T14:30:00+00:00LONG29,606.502026-08-27T15:45:00+00:0029,516.12$10,000.00$10,000.00MISS$-34.53
2026-08-26T14:00:00+00:00LONG29,331.002026-08-26T14:00:00+00:0029,243.38$10,000.00$10,000.00MISS$-33.87
2026-08-25T14:15:00+00:00SHORT29,245.502026-08-25T14:30:00+00:0029,162.88$10,000.00$10,000.00HIT$+24.25
2026-08-21T14:00:00+00:00SHORT29,303.502026-08-21T15:30:00+00:0029,392.38$10,000.00$10,000.00MISS$-34.33
2026-08-20T15:45:00+00:00SHORT29,278.502026-08-20T19:45:00+00:0029,305.50$10,000.00$10,000.00MISS$-13.22
2026-08-19T14:00:00+00:00SHORT29,496.502026-08-19T16:00:00+00:0029,651.25$10,000.00$10,000.00MISS$-56.46
2026-08-18T14:15:00+00:00SHORT29,587.002026-08-18T19:45:00+00:0029,586.50$10,000.00$10,000.00MISS$-3.83
2026-08-17T15:30:00+00:00LONG30,269.752026-08-17T15:30:00+00:0030,215.50$10,000.00$10,000.00MISS$-21.92

Capital basis is allocated paper equity. Gross notional uses the exposure stored with that exact fill; legacy fills with no recorded exposure are shown as unknown. A new semantic paper generation archives the prior run and restarts the forward clock.

Archived paper versions

Read-only prior runs preserve their executable manifest, balances, and fills. They never contribute to the active clock, cash, or qualification.

VersionMarketExposureAllocationCostCode hashStartedArchivedFillsStarting cashEnding cashRealized P&LFinal status
legacy-v1unknown · unknownunknownunknownunknownlegacy2026-08-16T16:54:09.212635+00:002026-08-16T22:55:39.708522+00:000$100,000.00$100,000.00$+0.00running
TRADES49
AVERAGE TRADE-2.52 bps
STRATEGY 1.0x / BUY & HOLD 1x-1.26% / +5.54%
VS 1x REFERENCE-6.80% · LAGS
DRAWDOWN: STRATEGY / B&H+3.80% / +7.12%
HITS / MISSES23 / 26
HIT RATE+46.94%
AVG HIT / MISS+0.33% / -0.34%
LONGEST MISS STREAK5

Rolling 70/30 diagnostic

This moving 70/30 split is a dashboard diagnostic, not frozen qualification evidence. It cannot award AI-qualified status.

FINAL 30% TRADES15
STRATEGY / B&H 1x-0.05% / +5.46%
FINAL 30% VS B&H-5.50%
FINAL 30% HIT RATE+46.67%
FINAL 30% DRAWDOWN+0.61%
INDEPENDENT EVIDENCE?No

Candles and execution signals

▲ BUY▼ SELLHover a candle or marker for exact values
30906.0030805.5030705.0030604.5030504.002026-09-29T11:45:00+00:00 O 30659.50 H 30707.50 L 30636.00 C 30681.252026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00 O 30681.75 H 30710.00 L 30678.25 C 30699.502026-09-29T12:15:00+00:00 O 30700.00 H 30717.75 L 30655.00 C 30674.752026-09-29T12:30:00+00:00 O 30674.50 H 30681.00 L 30643.75 C 30652.502026-09-29T12:45:00+00:00 O 30652.50 H 30653.00 L 30628.50 C 30631.502026-09-29T13:00:00+00:00 O 30631.25 H 30666.50 L 30629.50 C 30665.502026-09-29T13:15:00+00:00 O 30666.00 H 30709.25 L 30654.75 C 30709.002026-09-29T13:30:00+00:00 O 30708.75 H 30725.25 L 30545.25 C 30567.002026-09-29T13:45:00+00:00 O 30567.25 H 30656.25 L 30558.25 C 30609.502026-09-29T14:00:00+00:00 O 30608.25 H 30663.00 L 30588.50 C 30628.252026-09-29T14:15:00+00:00 O 30628.25 H 30698.50 L 30597.75 C 30671.002026-09-29T14:30:00+00:00 O 30671.00 H 30700.00 L 30656.75 C 30669.502026-09-29T14:45:00+00:00 O 30669.50 H 30706.50 L 30641.25 C 30663.502026-09-29T15:00:00+00:00 O 30663.00 H 30666.00 L 30593.50 C 30638.252026-09-29T15:15:00+00:00 O 30637.75 H 30648.75 L 30532.00 C 30554.502026-09-29T15:30:00+00:00 O 30554.75 H 30613.75 L 30543.25 C 30577.502026-09-29T15:45:00+00:00 O 30577.75 H 30612.25 L 30553.00 C 30588.252026-09-29T16:00:00+00:00 O 30588.25 H 30594.00 L 30551.50 C 30559.002026-09-29T16:15:00+00:00 O 30559.25 H 30590.75 L 30550.50 C 30583.752026-09-29T16:30:00+00:00 O 30583.75 H 30584.75 L 30517.50 C 30518.502026-09-29T16:45:00+00:00 O 30518.75 H 30568.00 L 30504.00 C 30538.002026-09-29T17:00:00+00:00 O 30537.75 H 30548.50 L 30513.00 C 30543.252026-09-29T17:15:00+00:00 O 30542.50 H 30581.25 L 30521.25 C 30568.252026-09-29T17:30:00+00:00 O 30568.25 H 30584.75 L 30538.75 C 30559.502026-09-29T17:45:00+00:00 O 30559.25 H 30571.00 L 30508.00 C 30522.502026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00 O 30522.00 H 30597.75 L 30522.00 C 30589.002026-09-29T18:15:00+00:00 O 30588.50 H 30620.00 L 30584.50 C 30601.752026-09-29T18:30:00+00:00 O 30602.25 H 30661.00 L 30581.00 C 30639.002026-09-29T18:45:00+00:00 O 30639.00 H 30655.00 L 30624.75 C 30646.752026-09-29T19:00:00+00:00 O 30647.00 H 30656.75 L 30617.25 C 30623.002026-09-29T19:15:00+00:00 O 30623.25 H 30643.00 L 30617.25 C 30626.002026-09-29T19:30:00+00:00 O 30625.75 H 30640.00 L 30599.50 C 30602.002026-09-29T19:45:00+00:00 O 30601.50 H 30647.75 L 30592.50 C 30617.502026-09-29T20:00:00+00:00 O 30617.00 H 30644.75 L 30614.00 C 30629.252026-09-29T20:15:00+00:00 O 30629.75 H 30657.50 L 30626.25 C 30655.252026-09-29T20:30:00+00:00 O 30654.75 H 30677.75 L 30648.50 C 30674.502026-09-29T20:45:00+00:00 O 30674.50 H 30676.50 L 30648.25 C 30651.002026-09-29T22:00:00+00:00 O 30655.50 H 30703.75 L 30653.75 C 30688.502026-09-29T22:15:00+00:00 O 30688.25 H 30708.75 L 30678.00 C 30680.502026-09-29T22:30:00+00:00 O 30681.25 H 30685.50 L 30662.25 C 30669.502026-09-29T22:45:00+00:00 O 30668.75 H 30674.50 L 30660.50 C 30669.002026-09-29T23:00:00+00:00 O 30669.50 H 30685.00 L 30663.75 C 30682.002026-09-29T23:15:00+00:00 O 30681.50 H 30689.75 L 30670.00 C 30678.752026-09-29T23:30:00+00:00 O 30679.25 H 30703.50 L 30670.50 C 30695.252026-09-29T23:45:00+00:00 O 30696.00 H 30714.50 L 30692.75 C 30712.252026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00 O 30712.25 H 30737.25 L 30704.75 C 30730.502026-09-30T00:15:00+00:00 O 30730.50 H 30735.50 L 30691.75 C 30697.502026-09-30T00:30:00+00:00 O 30697.50 H 30713.25 L 30675.25 C 30678.002026-09-30T00:45:00+00:00 O 30678.00 H 30679.50 L 30644.00 C 30655.252026-09-30T01:00:00+00:00 O 30654.25 H 30669.50 L 30633.00 C 30641.502026-09-30T01:15:00+00:00 O 30641.25 H 30652.00 L 30630.25 C 30631.752026-09-30T01:30:00+00:00 O 30631.75 H 30654.75 L 30624.25 C 30642.502026-09-30T01:45:00+00:00 O 30643.00 H 30650.25 L 30630.50 C 30647.252026-09-30T02:00:00+00:00 O 30647.25 H 30658.00 L 30597.25 C 30610.002026-09-30T02:15:00+00:00 O 30609.50 H 30631.00 L 30601.00 C 30605.752026-09-30T02:30:00+00:00 O 30606.25 H 30609.50 L 30572.25 C 30591.502026-09-30T02:45:00+00:00 O 30592.25 H 30621.50 L 30585.25 C 30595.752026-09-30T03:00:00+00:00 O 30595.75 H 30612.25 L 30594.00 C 30602.252026-09-30T03:15:00+00:00 O 30601.75 H 30613.00 L 30590.25 C 30608.252026-09-30T03:30:00+00:00 O 30608.75 H 30648.50 L 30604.75 C 30638.002026-09-30T03:45:00+00:00 O 30639.00 H 30643.75 L 30629.25 C 30638.502026-09-30T04:00:00+00:00 O 30643.25 H 30657.00 L 30640.25 C 30656.502026-09-30T04:15:00+00:00 O 30657.00 H 30660.75 L 30644.50 C 30654.502026-09-30T04:30:00+00:00 O 30653.75 H 30677.00 L 30649.75 C 30669.752026-09-30T04:45:00+00:00 O 30670.00 H 30673.00 L 30639.75 C 30647.252026-09-30T05:00:00+00:00 O 30647.25 H 30662.00 L 30598.25 C 30598.252026-09-30T05:15:00+00:00 O 30599.00 H 30618.00 L 30579.75 C 30611.752026-09-30T05:30:00+00:00 O 30611.50 H 30648.75 L 30609.00 C 30618.752026-09-30T05:45:00+00:00 O 30619.00 H 30639.00 L 30583.25 C 30614.252026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00 O 30613.75 H 30631.00 L 30591.50 C 30592.502026-09-30T06:15:00+00:00 O 30591.75 H 30612.50 L 30589.75 C 30597.502026-09-30T06:30:00+00:00 O 30597.00 H 30601.25 L 30549.00 C 30569.252026-09-30T06:45:00+00:00 O 30569.25 H 30609.50 L 30539.75 C 30587.252026-09-30T07:00:00+00:00 O 30587.00 H 30635.50 L 30581.50 C 30630.252026-09-30T07:15:00+00:00 O 30630.00 H 30685.00 L 30627.50 C 30658.252026-09-30T07:30:00+00:00 O 30657.75 H 30693.00 L 30652.25 C 30679.502026-09-30T07:45:00+00:00 O 30680.00 H 30692.00 L 30676.25 C 30689.502026-09-30T08:00:00+00:00 O 30689.50 H 30707.50 L 30654.50 C 30658.502026-09-30T08:15:00+00:00 O 30658.75 H 30674.25 L 30649.75 C 30663.502026-09-30T08:30:00+00:00 O 30666.25 H 30671.50 L 30635.25 C 30638.252026-09-30T08:45:00+00:00 O 30637.75 H 30656.75 L 30619.25 C 30620.002026-09-30T09:00:00+00:00 O 30620.50 H 30632.00 L 30588.25 C 30631.252026-09-30T09:15:00+00:00 O 30631.25 H 30635.00 L 30608.50 C 30616.752026-09-30T09:30:00+00:00 O 30616.50 H 30642.75 L 30593.25 C 30605.002026-09-30T09:45:00+00:00 O 30604.50 H 30617.50 L 30603.00 C 30615.002026-09-30T10:00:00+00:00 O 30614.25 H 30614.50 L 30580.00 C 30582.002026-09-30T10:15:00+00:00 O 30581.75 H 30605.75 L 30571.50 C 30589.252026-09-30T10:30:00+00:00 O 30589.00 H 30601.00 L 30577.75 C 30591.252026-09-30T10:45:00+00:00 O 30591.75 H 30607.75 L 30584.25 C 30590.002026-09-30T11:00:00+00:00 O 30590.25 H 30590.25 L 30529.50 C 30539.502026-09-30T11:15:00+00:00 O 30538.50 H 30587.00 L 30511.75 C 30574.752026-09-30T11:30:00+00:00 O 30575.00 H 30606.75 L 30568.25 C 30591.502026-09-30T11:45:00+00:00 O 30591.25 H 30600.00 L 30550.00 C 30589.752026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00 O 30589.25 H 30600.50 L 30553.50 C 30575.252026-09-30T12:15:00+00:00 O 30576.25 H 30623.50 L 30531.50 C 30623.002026-09-30T12:30:00+00:00 O 30621.00 H 30779.25 L 30601.50 C 30718.502026-09-30T12:45:00+00:00 O 30718.50 H 30744.00 L 30672.00 C 30714.252026-09-30T13:00:00+00:00 O 30714.75 H 30768.25 L 30711.75 C 30738.502026-09-30T13:15:00+00:00 O 30739.00 H 30747.50 L 30687.25 C 30699.252026-09-30T13:30:00+00:00 O 30699.25 H 30810.25 L 30682.25 C 30768.502026-09-30T13:45:00+00:00 O 30768.75 H 30843.50 L 30717.00 C 30841.002026-09-30T14:00:00+00:00 O 30841.00 H 30893.00 L 30804.50 C 30830.502026-09-30T14:15:00+00:00 O 30830.25 H 30866.25 L 30800.00 C 30827.252026-09-30T14:30:00+00:00 O 30827.75 H 30845.00 L 30780.00 C 30796.752026-09-30T14:45:00+00:00 O 30796.75 H 30882.25 L 30792.25 C 30843.502026-09-30T15:00:00+00:00 O 30843.75 H 30854.50 L 30812.50 C 30827.752026-09-30T15:15:00+00:00 O 30827.75 H 30858.00 L 30806.00 C 30855.752026-09-30T15:30:00+00:00 O 30855.50 H 30877.75 L 30825.50 C 30834.252026-09-30T15:45:00+00:00 O 30833.75 H 30906.00 L 30826.00 C 30879.252026-09-30T16:00:00+00:00 O 30879.00 H 30896.75 L 30865.75 C 30890.252026-09-30T16:15:00+00:00 O 30890.75 H 30893.00 L 30845.00 C 30846.002026-09-30T16:30:00+00:00 O 30846.50 H 30866.50 L 30819.00 C 30861.752026-09-30T16:45:00+00:00 O 30861.50 H 30863.00 L 30833.50 C 30860.502026-09-30T17:00:00+00:00 O 30861.00 H 30870.75 L 30830.75 C 30835.502026-09-30T17:15:00+00:00 O 30835.50 H 30835.75 L 30761.50 C 30789.002026-09-30T17:30:00+00:00 O 30789.25 H 30837.50 L 30788.00 C 30826.002026-09-30T17:45:00+00:00 O 30826.25 H 30863.75 L 30816.00 C 30856.252026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00 O 30856.25 H 30863.00 L 30819.25 C 30856.752026-09-30T18:15:00+00:00 O 30857.00 H 30859.50 L 30807.75 C 30832.002026-09-30T18:30:00+00:00 O 30832.25 H 30837.00 L 30827.75 C 30831.75ENTRY SELL · 2026-09-29T16:45:00+00:00 · 30518.75SELLEXIT BUY · 2026-09-29T18:30:00+00:00 · 30635.25BUYENTRY BUY · 2026-09-30T14:00:00+00:00 · 30841.00BUYEXIT SELL · 2026-09-30T18:30:00+00:00 · 30831.75SELL2026-09-292026-09-30

Shows the latest 120 available bars. BUY/SELL marks strategy entries and exits whose timestamps fall in this visible window.

Historical equity curve

Compounds each encoded net trade sequentially, including the strategy's declared exposure and modeled costs. The forward ledger starts only after deployment.

Backtest specification

STATUS / REPLICATIONcompleted · independent_next_bar_execution
DATAYahoo Finance (delayed/unofficial)
MARKETMNQ=F · 15m
HISTORY2026-07-22T04:00:00+00:00
2026-09-30T18:30:00+00:00
WIN RATE+46.94%
PROFIT FACTOR0.86

The exact free-data sample is about 60 days. Next-bar execution and 4 bps costs are more conservative than the published TradingView defaults.

Historical transactions

Download JSONDownload all transactions as CSV

HIT = profitable after the 4 bps cost assumption; MISS = loss after costs; FLAT = break-even. Showing the most recent 100 of 49 transactions.

EntrySideEntry priceExitExit priceOutcomeNet return
2026-09-30T14:00:00+00:00LONG30,841.002026-09-30T18:30:00+00:0030,831.75MISS-0.070%
2026-09-29T16:45:00+00:00SHORT30,518.752026-09-29T18:30:00+00:0030,635.25MISS-0.422%
2026-09-28T14:15:00+00:00SHORT30,521.502026-09-28T14:45:00+00:0030,362.62HIT+0.481%
2026-09-25T14:00:00+00:00LONG30,899.502026-09-25T14:00:00+00:0030,828.75MISS-0.269%
2026-09-24T14:30:00+00:00LONG30,630.252026-09-24T14:45:00+00:0030,548.50MISS-0.307%
2026-09-23T14:00:00+00:00SHORT30,846.502026-09-23T14:00:00+00:0030,735.62HIT+0.319%
2026-09-22T14:00:00+00:00LONG30,929.752026-09-22T19:15:00+00:0031,014.12HIT+0.233%
2026-09-21T14:00:00+00:00LONG30,416.502026-09-21T14:30:00+00:0030,554.38HIT+0.413%
2026-09-18T14:00:00+00:00SHORT29,776.752026-09-18T14:00:00+00:0029,731.50HIT+0.112%
2026-09-17T16:00:00+00:00LONG29,743.252026-09-17T19:45:00+00:0029,744.75MISS-0.035%
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