← ALL STRATEGIES · big_daddy_orb_reversal

Big Daddy ORB — failed-break reversal

RESEARCH STRATEGY
RUNNING

Trades against the first opening-range breakout after price closes back inside the range.

DEFAULT MARKETMNQ=F
BAR INTERVAL15m
GROSS EXPOSURE1.0x
PAPER CASH$100,014.72
REALIZED P&L$+14.72
PROMOTION AUDIT

No AI qualification submitted

This strategy keeps its course or research provenance. A normal backtest snapshot cannot award the AI-generated label.

NOT TESTEDLocked evidenceRequires 100+ trades over 180+ untouched calendar days.
NOT TESTEDCost survivalMust beat exposure-matched Buy & Hold at 4 and 8 bps.
NOT TESTEDIntraday flatnessEvery position must close within its trading session.
NOT TESTEDImmutable provenanceExact algorithm, dataset, and trade-ledger SHA-256 fingerprints are mandatory.

How the strategy works

A first close outside the opening range arms a failed-breakout setup. If price subsequently closes back inside, the model reverses against the failed move on the next bar, places its stop beyond the full failure extreme, and targets one unit of risk.

Concrete example

MNQ closes above a 30,060 range high, reaches 30,085, then closes back inside at 30,050. The next bar opens the short; 30,085 is the stop reference and the target is equally far below the attainable entry.

Published research

Grant, Wolf & Yu — Intraday Price Reversals

Published evidence motivates this candidate; it does not guarantee this implementation will pass our current sample.

Exact algorithm

Required data: ohlcv

Where it may work—and where it can fail

EXPECTED BEST CONDITIONS

False morning breakouts where price rapidly rejects an extreme and returns to the opening auction.

IMPORTANT CONTEXT

This isolates the reversal branch from continuation. The short sample and continuous-contract roll effects prevent a profitability claim.

Main risks

“Best conditions” is an interpretation of the strategy's mechanism, not an additional course entry rule and not a performance guarantee.

Forward paper transactions

LEDGER START2026-08-16T22:55:39.915747+00:00
PAPER VERSIONv2 · 172b78e9006b
STATUSrunning
STATUS DETAILNo issue
EntrySideEntry priceExitExit priceCapital basisGross notionalOutcomeP&L
2026-09-29T17:30:00+00:00LONG30,568.252026-09-29T18:30:00+00:0030,632.50$10,000.00$10,000.00HIT$+17.02
2026-09-28T16:30:00+00:00LONG30,683.252026-09-28T19:45:00+00:0030,566.75$10,000.00$10,000.00MISS$-41.97
2026-09-25T15:00:00+00:00SHORT30,823.502026-09-25T16:00:00+00:0030,926.25$10,000.00$10,000.00MISS$-37.33
2026-09-24T14:45:00+00:00SHORT30,579.502026-09-24T15:00:00+00:0030,514.75$10,000.00$10,000.00HIT$+17.17
2026-09-22T14:45:00+00:00SHORT30,914.252026-09-22T18:15:00+00:0030,997.75$10,000.00$10,000.00MISS$-31.01
2026-09-18T19:00:00+00:00LONG29,832.002026-09-18T19:45:00+00:0029,915.50$10,000.00$10,000.00HIT$+23.99
2026-09-17T17:15:00+00:00SHORT29,732.252026-09-17T19:45:00+00:0029,767.00$10,000.00$10,000.00MISS$-15.69
2026-09-16T17:45:00+00:00SHORT29,422.752026-09-16T18:45:00+00:0029,293.00$10,000.00$10,000.00HIT$+40.10
2026-09-11T14:15:00+00:00SHORT29,397.502026-09-11T15:15:00+00:0029,475.00$10,000.00$10,000.00MISS$-30.36
2026-09-10T16:15:00+00:00SHORT29,180.502026-09-10T19:45:00+00:0029,138.25$10,000.00$10,000.00HIT$+10.48
2026-09-09T15:45:00+00:00SHORT29,438.252026-09-09T19:45:00+00:0029,455.00$10,000.00$10,000.00MISS$-9.69
2026-09-08T14:30:00+00:00LONG29,516.502026-09-08T15:00:00+00:0029,608.50$10,000.00$10,000.00HIT$+27.17
2026-09-04T14:30:00+00:00SHORT29,596.002026-09-04T14:45:00+00:0029,500.00$10,000.00$10,000.00HIT$+28.44
2026-09-01T16:45:00+00:00SHORT29,137.502026-09-01T19:45:00+00:0029,125.50$10,000.00$10,000.00HIT$+0.12
2026-08-31T14:45:00+00:00LONG29,425.252026-08-31T19:45:00+00:0029,496.50$10,000.00$10,000.00HIT$+20.21
2026-08-28T14:30:00+00:00LONG29,654.002026-08-28T15:00:00+00:0029,802.50$10,000.00$10,000.00HIT$+46.08
2026-08-27T14:45:00+00:00SHORT29,556.502026-08-27T15:00:00+00:0029,622.25$10,000.00$10,000.00MISS$-26.25
2026-08-26T14:15:00+00:00SHORT29,245.752026-08-26T14:15:00+00:0029,158.25$10,000.00$10,000.00HIT$+25.92
2026-08-25T16:30:00+00:00LONG29,294.252026-08-25T19:45:00+00:0029,270.25$10,000.00$10,000.00MISS$-12.19
2026-08-21T15:00:00+00:00LONG29,332.002026-08-21T15:30:00+00:0029,443.75$10,000.00$10,000.00HIT$+34.10
2026-08-20T16:30:00+00:00LONG29,340.502026-08-20T18:00:00+00:0029,269.25$10,000.00$10,000.00MISS$-28.28
2026-08-19T14:45:00+00:00LONG29,563.752026-08-19T19:45:00+00:0029,521.75$10,000.00$10,000.00MISS$-18.21
2026-08-18T14:30:00+00:00LONG29,669.002026-08-18T14:45:00+00:0029,568.25$10,000.00$10,000.00MISS$-37.96
2026-08-17T15:45:00+00:00SHORT30,228.002026-08-17T16:45:00+00:0030,177.00$10,000.00$10,000.00HIT$+12.87

Capital basis is allocated paper equity. Gross notional uses the exposure stored with that exact fill; legacy fills with no recorded exposure are shown as unknown. A new semantic paper generation archives the prior run and restarts the forward clock.

Archived paper versions

Read-only prior runs preserve their executable manifest, balances, and fills. They never contribute to the active clock, cash, or qualification.

VersionMarketExposureAllocationCostCode hashStartedArchivedFillsStarting cashEnding cashRealized P&LFinal status
legacy-v1unknown · unknownunknownunknownunknownlegacy2026-08-16T16:54:09.212635+00:002026-08-16T22:55:39.915747+00:000$100,000.00$100,000.00$+0.00running
TRADES35
AVERAGE TRADE-9.35 bps
STRATEGY 1.0x / BUY & HOLD 1x-3.26% / +5.54%
VS 1x REFERENCE-8.80% · LAGS
DRAWDOWN: STRATEGY / B&H+3.74% / +7.12%
HITS / MISSES17 / 18
HIT RATE+48.57%
AVG HIT / MISS+0.24% / -0.41%
LONGEST MISS STREAK3

Rolling 70/30 diagnostic

This moving 70/30 split is a dashboard diagnostic, not frozen qualification evidence. It cannot award AI-qualified status.

FINAL 30% TRADES11
STRATEGY / B&H 1x-0.83% / +5.67%
FINAL 30% VS B&H-6.50%
FINAL 30% HIT RATE+45.45%
FINAL 30% DRAWDOWN+1.11%
INDEPENDENT EVIDENCE?No

Candles and execution signals

▲ BUY▼ SELLHover a candle or marker for exact values
30906.0030805.5030705.0030604.5030504.002026-09-29T11:45:00+00:00 O 30659.50 H 30707.50 L 30636.00 C 30681.252026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00 O 30681.75 H 30710.00 L 30678.25 C 30699.502026-09-29T12:15:00+00:00 O 30700.00 H 30717.75 L 30655.00 C 30674.752026-09-29T12:30:00+00:00 O 30674.50 H 30681.00 L 30643.75 C 30652.502026-09-29T12:45:00+00:00 O 30652.50 H 30653.00 L 30628.50 C 30631.502026-09-29T13:00:00+00:00 O 30631.25 H 30666.50 L 30629.50 C 30665.502026-09-29T13:15:00+00:00 O 30666.00 H 30709.25 L 30654.75 C 30709.002026-09-29T13:30:00+00:00 O 30708.75 H 30725.25 L 30545.25 C 30567.002026-09-29T13:45:00+00:00 O 30567.25 H 30656.25 L 30558.25 C 30609.502026-09-29T14:00:00+00:00 O 30608.25 H 30663.00 L 30588.50 C 30628.252026-09-29T14:15:00+00:00 O 30628.25 H 30698.50 L 30597.75 C 30671.002026-09-29T14:30:00+00:00 O 30671.00 H 30700.00 L 30656.75 C 30669.502026-09-29T14:45:00+00:00 O 30669.50 H 30706.50 L 30641.25 C 30663.502026-09-29T15:00:00+00:00 O 30663.00 H 30666.00 L 30593.50 C 30638.252026-09-29T15:15:00+00:00 O 30637.75 H 30648.75 L 30532.00 C 30554.502026-09-29T15:30:00+00:00 O 30554.75 H 30613.75 L 30543.25 C 30577.502026-09-29T15:45:00+00:00 O 30577.75 H 30612.25 L 30553.00 C 30588.252026-09-29T16:00:00+00:00 O 30588.25 H 30594.00 L 30551.50 C 30559.002026-09-29T16:15:00+00:00 O 30559.25 H 30590.75 L 30550.50 C 30583.752026-09-29T16:30:00+00:00 O 30583.75 H 30584.75 L 30517.50 C 30518.502026-09-29T16:45:00+00:00 O 30518.75 H 30568.00 L 30504.00 C 30538.002026-09-29T17:00:00+00:00 O 30537.75 H 30548.50 L 30513.00 C 30543.252026-09-29T17:15:00+00:00 O 30542.50 H 30581.25 L 30521.25 C 30568.252026-09-29T17:30:00+00:00 O 30568.25 H 30584.75 L 30538.75 C 30559.502026-09-29T17:45:00+00:00 O 30559.25 H 30571.00 L 30508.00 C 30522.502026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00 O 30522.00 H 30597.75 L 30522.00 C 30589.002026-09-29T18:15:00+00:00 O 30588.50 H 30620.00 L 30584.50 C 30601.752026-09-29T18:30:00+00:00 O 30602.25 H 30661.00 L 30581.00 C 30639.002026-09-29T18:45:00+00:00 O 30639.00 H 30655.00 L 30624.75 C 30646.752026-09-29T19:00:00+00:00 O 30647.00 H 30656.75 L 30617.25 C 30623.002026-09-29T19:15:00+00:00 O 30623.25 H 30643.00 L 30617.25 C 30626.002026-09-29T19:30:00+00:00 O 30625.75 H 30640.00 L 30599.50 C 30602.002026-09-29T19:45:00+00:00 O 30601.50 H 30647.75 L 30592.50 C 30617.502026-09-29T20:00:00+00:00 O 30617.00 H 30644.75 L 30614.00 C 30629.252026-09-29T20:15:00+00:00 O 30629.75 H 30657.50 L 30626.25 C 30655.252026-09-29T20:30:00+00:00 O 30654.75 H 30677.75 L 30648.50 C 30674.502026-09-29T20:45:00+00:00 O 30674.50 H 30676.50 L 30648.25 C 30651.002026-09-29T22:00:00+00:00 O 30655.50 H 30703.75 L 30653.75 C 30688.502026-09-29T22:15:00+00:00 O 30688.25 H 30708.75 L 30678.00 C 30680.502026-09-29T22:30:00+00:00 O 30681.25 H 30685.50 L 30662.25 C 30669.502026-09-29T22:45:00+00:00 O 30668.75 H 30674.50 L 30660.50 C 30669.002026-09-29T23:00:00+00:00 O 30669.50 H 30685.00 L 30663.75 C 30682.002026-09-29T23:15:00+00:00 O 30681.50 H 30689.75 L 30670.00 C 30678.752026-09-29T23:30:00+00:00 O 30679.25 H 30703.50 L 30670.50 C 30695.252026-09-29T23:45:00+00:00 O 30696.00 H 30714.50 L 30692.75 C 30712.252026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00 O 30712.25 H 30737.25 L 30704.75 C 30730.502026-09-30T00:15:00+00:00 O 30730.50 H 30735.50 L 30691.75 C 30697.502026-09-30T00:30:00+00:00 O 30697.50 H 30713.25 L 30675.25 C 30678.002026-09-30T00:45:00+00:00 O 30678.00 H 30679.50 L 30644.00 C 30655.252026-09-30T01:00:00+00:00 O 30654.25 H 30669.50 L 30633.00 C 30641.502026-09-30T01:15:00+00:00 O 30641.25 H 30652.00 L 30630.25 C 30631.752026-09-30T01:30:00+00:00 O 30631.75 H 30654.75 L 30624.25 C 30642.502026-09-30T01:45:00+00:00 O 30643.00 H 30650.25 L 30630.50 C 30647.252026-09-30T02:00:00+00:00 O 30647.25 H 30658.00 L 30597.25 C 30610.002026-09-30T02:15:00+00:00 O 30609.50 H 30631.00 L 30601.00 C 30605.752026-09-30T02:30:00+00:00 O 30606.25 H 30609.50 L 30572.25 C 30591.502026-09-30T02:45:00+00:00 O 30592.25 H 30621.50 L 30585.25 C 30595.752026-09-30T03:00:00+00:00 O 30595.75 H 30612.25 L 30594.00 C 30602.252026-09-30T03:15:00+00:00 O 30601.75 H 30613.00 L 30590.25 C 30608.252026-09-30T03:30:00+00:00 O 30608.75 H 30648.50 L 30604.75 C 30638.002026-09-30T03:45:00+00:00 O 30639.00 H 30643.75 L 30629.25 C 30638.502026-09-30T04:00:00+00:00 O 30643.25 H 30657.00 L 30640.25 C 30656.502026-09-30T04:15:00+00:00 O 30657.00 H 30660.75 L 30644.50 C 30654.502026-09-30T04:30:00+00:00 O 30653.75 H 30677.00 L 30649.75 C 30669.752026-09-30T04:45:00+00:00 O 30670.00 H 30673.00 L 30639.75 C 30647.252026-09-30T05:00:00+00:00 O 30647.25 H 30662.00 L 30598.25 C 30598.252026-09-30T05:15:00+00:00 O 30599.00 H 30618.00 L 30579.75 C 30611.752026-09-30T05:30:00+00:00 O 30611.50 H 30648.75 L 30609.00 C 30618.752026-09-30T05:45:00+00:00 O 30619.00 H 30639.00 L 30583.25 C 30614.252026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00 O 30613.75 H 30631.00 L 30591.50 C 30592.502026-09-30T06:15:00+00:00 O 30591.75 H 30612.50 L 30589.75 C 30597.502026-09-30T06:30:00+00:00 O 30597.00 H 30601.25 L 30549.00 C 30569.252026-09-30T06:45:00+00:00 O 30569.25 H 30609.50 L 30539.75 C 30587.252026-09-30T07:00:00+00:00 O 30587.00 H 30635.50 L 30581.50 C 30630.252026-09-30T07:15:00+00:00 O 30630.00 H 30685.00 L 30627.50 C 30658.252026-09-30T07:30:00+00:00 O 30657.75 H 30693.00 L 30652.25 C 30679.502026-09-30T07:45:00+00:00 O 30680.00 H 30692.00 L 30676.25 C 30689.502026-09-30T08:00:00+00:00 O 30689.50 H 30707.50 L 30654.50 C 30658.502026-09-30T08:15:00+00:00 O 30658.75 H 30674.25 L 30649.75 C 30663.502026-09-30T08:30:00+00:00 O 30666.25 H 30671.50 L 30635.25 C 30638.252026-09-30T08:45:00+00:00 O 30637.75 H 30656.75 L 30619.25 C 30620.002026-09-30T09:00:00+00:00 O 30620.50 H 30632.00 L 30588.25 C 30631.252026-09-30T09:15:00+00:00 O 30631.25 H 30635.00 L 30608.50 C 30616.752026-09-30T09:30:00+00:00 O 30616.50 H 30642.75 L 30593.25 C 30605.002026-09-30T09:45:00+00:00 O 30604.50 H 30617.50 L 30603.00 C 30615.002026-09-30T10:00:00+00:00 O 30614.25 H 30614.50 L 30580.00 C 30582.002026-09-30T10:15:00+00:00 O 30581.75 H 30605.75 L 30571.50 C 30589.252026-09-30T10:30:00+00:00 O 30589.00 H 30601.00 L 30577.75 C 30591.252026-09-30T10:45:00+00:00 O 30591.75 H 30607.75 L 30584.25 C 30590.002026-09-30T11:00:00+00:00 O 30590.25 H 30590.25 L 30529.50 C 30539.502026-09-30T11:15:00+00:00 O 30538.50 H 30587.00 L 30511.75 C 30574.752026-09-30T11:30:00+00:00 O 30575.00 H 30606.75 L 30568.25 C 30591.502026-09-30T11:45:00+00:00 O 30591.25 H 30600.00 L 30550.00 C 30589.752026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00 O 30589.25 H 30600.50 L 30553.50 C 30575.252026-09-30T12:15:00+00:00 O 30576.25 H 30623.50 L 30531.50 C 30623.002026-09-30T12:30:00+00:00 O 30621.00 H 30779.25 L 30601.50 C 30718.502026-09-30T12:45:00+00:00 O 30718.50 H 30744.00 L 30672.00 C 30714.252026-09-30T13:00:00+00:00 O 30714.75 H 30768.25 L 30711.75 C 30738.502026-09-30T13:15:00+00:00 O 30739.00 H 30747.50 L 30687.25 C 30699.252026-09-30T13:30:00+00:00 O 30699.25 H 30810.25 L 30682.25 C 30768.502026-09-30T13:45:00+00:00 O 30768.75 H 30843.50 L 30717.00 C 30841.002026-09-30T14:00:00+00:00 O 30841.00 H 30893.00 L 30804.50 C 30830.502026-09-30T14:15:00+00:00 O 30830.25 H 30866.25 L 30800.00 C 30827.252026-09-30T14:30:00+00:00 O 30827.75 H 30845.00 L 30780.00 C 30796.752026-09-30T14:45:00+00:00 O 30796.75 H 30882.25 L 30792.25 C 30843.502026-09-30T15:00:00+00:00 O 30843.75 H 30854.50 L 30812.50 C 30827.752026-09-30T15:15:00+00:00 O 30827.75 H 30858.00 L 30806.00 C 30855.752026-09-30T15:30:00+00:00 O 30855.50 H 30877.75 L 30825.50 C 30834.252026-09-30T15:45:00+00:00 O 30833.75 H 30906.00 L 30826.00 C 30879.252026-09-30T16:00:00+00:00 O 30879.00 H 30896.75 L 30865.75 C 30890.252026-09-30T16:15:00+00:00 O 30890.75 H 30893.00 L 30845.00 C 30846.002026-09-30T16:30:00+00:00 O 30846.50 H 30866.50 L 30819.00 C 30861.752026-09-30T16:45:00+00:00 O 30861.50 H 30863.00 L 30833.50 C 30860.502026-09-30T17:00:00+00:00 O 30861.00 H 30870.75 L 30830.75 C 30835.502026-09-30T17:15:00+00:00 O 30835.50 H 30835.75 L 30761.50 C 30789.002026-09-30T17:30:00+00:00 O 30789.25 H 30837.50 L 30788.00 C 30826.002026-09-30T17:45:00+00:00 O 30826.25 H 30863.75 L 30816.00 C 30856.252026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00 O 30856.25 H 30863.00 L 30819.25 C 30856.752026-09-30T18:15:00+00:00 O 30857.00 H 30859.50 L 30807.75 C 30832.002026-09-30T18:30:00+00:00 O 30832.25 H 30837.00 L 30827.75 C 30831.75ENTRY BUY · 2026-09-29T17:30:00+00:00 · 30568.25BUYEXIT SELL · 2026-09-29T18:30:00+00:00 · 30632.50SELLENTRY SELL · 2026-09-30T14:45:00+00:00 · 30796.75SELLEXIT BUY · 2026-09-30T15:45:00+00:00 · 30893.00BUY2026-09-292026-09-30

Shows the latest 120 available bars. BUY/SELL marks strategy entries and exits whose timestamps fall in this visible window.

Historical equity curve

Compounds each encoded net trade sequentially, including the strategy's declared exposure and modeled costs. The forward ledger starts only after deployment.

Backtest specification

STATUS / REPLICATIONcompleted · independent_next_bar_execution
DATAYahoo Finance (delayed/unofficial)
MARKETMNQ=F · 15m
HISTORY2026-07-22T04:00:00+00:00
2026-09-30T18:30:00+00:00
WIN RATE+48.57%
PROFIT FACTOR0.55

This isolates the reversal branch from continuation. The short sample and continuous-contract roll effects prevent a profitability claim.

Historical transactions

Download JSONDownload all transactions as CSV

HIT = profitable after the 4 bps cost assumption; MISS = loss after costs; FLAT = break-even. Showing the most recent 100 of 35 transactions.

EntrySideEntry priceExitExit priceOutcomeNet return
2026-09-30T14:45:00+00:00SHORT30,796.752026-09-30T15:45:00+00:0030,893.00MISS-0.353%
2026-09-29T17:30:00+00:00LONG30,568.252026-09-29T18:30:00+00:0030,632.50HIT+0.170%
2026-09-28T16:30:00+00:00LONG30,683.252026-09-28T19:45:00+00:0030,566.75MISS-0.420%
2026-09-25T15:00:00+00:00SHORT30,823.502026-09-25T16:00:00+00:0030,926.25MISS-0.373%
2026-09-24T14:45:00+00:00SHORT30,579.502026-09-24T15:00:00+00:0030,514.75HIT+0.172%
2026-09-22T14:45:00+00:00SHORT30,914.252026-09-22T18:15:00+00:0030,997.75MISS-0.310%
2026-09-18T19:00:00+00:00LONG29,832.002026-09-18T19:45:00+00:0029,915.50HIT+0.240%
2026-09-17T17:15:00+00:00SHORT29,732.252026-09-17T19:45:00+00:0029,767.00MISS-0.157%
2026-09-16T17:45:00+00:00SHORT29,422.752026-09-16T18:45:00+00:0029,293.00HIT+0.401%
2026-09-11T14:15:00+00:00SHORT29,397.502026-09-11T15:15:00+00:0029,475.00MISS-0.304%
2026-09-10T16:15:00+00:00SHORT29,180.502026-09-10T19:45:00+00:0029,138.25HIT+0.105%
2026-09-09T15:45:00+00:00SHORT29,438.252026-09-09T19:45:00+00:0029,455.00MISS-0.097%
2026-09-08T14:30:00+00:00LONG29,516.502026-09-08T15:00:00+00:0029,608.50HIT+0.272%
2026-09-04T14:30:00+00:00SHORT29,596.002026-09-04T14:45:00+00:0029,500.00HIT+0.284%
2026-09-01T16:45:00+00:00SHORT29,137.502026-09-01T19:45:00+00:0029,125.50HIT+0.001%
2026-08-31T14:45:00+00:00LONG29,425.252026-08-31T19:45:00+00:0029,496.50HIT+0.202%
2026-08-28T14:30:00+00:00LONG29,653.752026-08-28T15:00:00+00:0029,802.00HIT+0.460%
2026-08-27T14:45:00+00:00SHORT29,557.252026-08-27T15:00:00+00:0029,622.25MISS-0.260%
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