Uses 2× daily SPY exposure only while SPY is above its 200-session moving average.
No AI qualification submitted
This strategy keeps its course or research provenance. A normal backtest snapshot cannot award the AI-generated label.
How the strategy works
Leverage is applied only in an established long-term uptrend. The moving-average gate tries to sidestep extended bear markets, while 2× exposure amplifies daily gains and losses when the gate is open.
Concrete example
If yesterday's SPY close is 610 and its 200-day average is 575, today's return is counted at 2× minus financing. A prior close below the average moves today's allocation to cash.
Published research
Michael Gayed — Leverage for the Long Run
Published evidence motivates this candidate; it does not guarantee this implementation will pass our current sample.
Exact algorithm
- Use yesterday's adjusted SPY close and 200-session average to avoid look-ahead.
- Take 2× daily-reset exposure when price is above the average; otherwise hold cash.
- Charge 5% annual financing on the borrowed 1× exposure.
- Charge 4 bps whenever exposure changes.
Required data: adjusted_ohlcv
Where it may work—and where it can fail
Main risks
- Daily leverage magnifies losses
- Whipsaws around the moving average
- A sudden crash can occur before the filter exits
- Outperformance versus unleveraged SPY is not proof of risk-adjusted alpha
“Best conditions” is an interpretation of the strategy's mechanism, not an additional course entry rule and not a performance guarantee.
Forward paper transactions
| Entry | Side | Entry price | Exit | Exit price | Capital basis | Gross notional | Outcome | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No forward-paper transactions yet. The ledger began at deployment and never imports historical P&L. | ||||||||
Capital basis is allocated paper equity. Gross notional uses the exposure stored with that exact fill; legacy fills with no recorded exposure are shown as unknown. A new semantic paper generation archives the prior run and restarts the forward clock.
Archived paper versions
Read-only prior runs preserve their executable manifest, balances, and fills. They never contribute to the active clock, cash, or qualification.
| Version | Market | Exposure | Allocation | Cost | Code hash | Started | Archived | Fills | Starting cash | Ending cash | Realized P&L | Final status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| legacy-v1 | unknown · unknown | unknown | unknown | unknown | legacy | 2026-08-16T16:54:09.212635+00:00 | 2026-08-16T22:55:49.735788+00:00 | 0 | $100,000.00 | $100,000.00 | $+0.00 | running |
Leverage reality check
The headline Buy & Hold card is the familiar 1x adjusted-price reference. A 4x strategy must also beat this 4x daily-reset reference before leverage-adjusted outperformance can be claimed. Neither comparison is frozen qualification evidence.
Rolling 70/30 diagnostic
This moving 70/30 split is a dashboard diagnostic, not frozen qualification evidence. It cannot award AI-qualified status.
Candles and execution signals
Shows the latest 120 available bars. BUY/SELL marks strategy entries and exits whose timestamps fall in this visible window.
Historical equity curve
Compounds each encoded net trade sequentially, including the strategy's declared exposure and modeled costs. The forward ledger starts only after deployment.
Backtest specification
It can beat ordinary SPY through leverage while still lagging constant 2× exposure; financing, taxes and real ETF tracking can differ.
Historical transactions
HIT = profitable after the 4 bps cost assumption; MISS = loss after costs; FLAT = break-even. Showing the most recent 100 of 26 transactions.
| Entry | Side | Entry price | Exit | Exit price | Outcome | Net return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 00:00:00+00:00 | LONG | 672.60 | 2026-09-30 00:00:00+00:00 | 766.79 | HIT | +25.895% |
| 2025-05-12 00:00:00+00:00 | LONG | 573.48 | 2026-03-20 00:00:00+00:00 | 645.30 | HIT | +19.832% |
| 2025-03-24 00:00:00+00:00 | LONG | 564.71 | 2025-03-26 00:00:00+00:00 | 559.31 | MISS | -2.118% |
| 2023-11-01 00:00:00+00:00 | LONG | 407.61 | 2025-03-10 00:00:00+00:00 | 549.78 | HIT | +66.236% |
| 2023-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 | LONG | 377.82 | 2023-10-25 00:00:00+00:00 | 402.69 | HIT | +9.052% |
| 2023-03-14 00:00:00+00:00 | LONG | 373.64 | 2023-03-15 00:00:00+00:00 | 371.30 | MISS | -1.431% |
| 2023-01-20 00:00:00+00:00 | LONG | 377.60 | 2023-03-10 00:00:00+00:00 | 368.09 | MISS | -6.108% |
| 2023-01-11 00:00:00+00:00 | LONG | 377.25 | 2023-01-18 00:00:00+00:00 | 373.41 | MISS | -2.294% |
| 2022-12-13 00:00:00+00:00 | LONG | 381.65 | 2022-12-14 00:00:00+00:00 | 379.21 | MISS | -1.459% |
| 2022-11-30 00:00:00+00:00 | LONG | 387.07 | 2022-12-05 00:00:00+00:00 | 379.39 | MISS | -4.180% |
| 2022-08-16 00:00:00+00:00 | LONG | 406.31 | 2022-08-17 00:00:00+00:00 | 403.43 | MISS | -1.599% |
| 2022-03-18 00:00:00+00:00 | LONG | 418.52 | 2022-04-11 00:00:00+00:00 | 414.19 | MISS | -2.697% |
| 2022-02-15 00:00:00+00:00 | LONG | 418.70 | 2022-02-17 00:00:00+00:00 | 410.22 | MISS | -4.257% |
| 2022-01-28 00:00:00+00:00 | LONG | 414.81 | 2022-02-11 00:00:00+00:00 | 413.41 | MISS | -1.236% |
| 2022-01-24 00:00:00+00:00 | LONG | 412.83 | 2022-01-25 00:00:00+00:00 | 407.79 | MISS | -2.622% |
| 2020-05-26 00:00:00+00:00 | LONG | 273.54 | 2022-01-21 00:00:00+00:00 | 411.08 | HIT | +99.497% |
| 2020-03-04 00:00:00+00:00 | LONG | 284.47 | 2020-03-05 00:00:00+00:00 | 275.02 | MISS | -6.828% |
| 2020-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 | LONG | 281.04 | 2020-03-03 00:00:00+00:00 | 273.00 | MISS | -5.906% |
| 2019-06-04 00:00:00+00:00 | LONG | 251.44 | 2020-02-27 00:00:00+00:00 | 270.51 | HIT | +9.772% |
| 2019-02-12 00:00:00+00:00 | LONG | 244.60 | 2019-05-31 00:00:00+00:00 | 246.72 | MISS | -0.288% |
| 2019-02-04 00:00:00+00:00 | LONG | 242.69 | 2019-02-07 00:00:00+00:00 | 241.06 | MISS | -1.564% |
| 2018-11-30 00:00:00+00:00 | LONG | 244.55 | 2018-12-04 00:00:00+00:00 | 239.76 | MISS | -4.203% |
| 2018-11-28 00:00:00+00:00 | LONG | 243.60 | 2018-11-29 00:00:00+00:00 | 243.07 | MISS | -0.617% |
| 2018-11-06 00:00:00+00:00 | LONG | 244.08 | 2018-11-12 00:00:00+00:00 | 241.82 | MISS | -2.172% |
| 2018-10-12 00:00:00+00:00 | LONG | 244.82 | 2018-10-23 00:00:00+00:00 | 242.74 | MISS | -2.059% |
| 2017-07-18 00:00:00+00:00 | LONG | 212.98 | 2018-10-11 00:00:00+00:00 | 241.46 | HIT | +18.445% |