← ALL STRATEGIES · nday_short

N-day low breakout

COURSE STRATEGY
RUNNING

Session breakdown below the lowest low of the previous five sessions.

DEFAULT MARKETQQQ
BAR INTERVAL1d
GROSS EXPOSURE1.0x
PAPER CASH$99,906.15
REALIZED P&L$-93.85
PROMOTION AUDIT

No AI qualification submitted

This strategy keeps its course or research provenance. A normal backtest snapshot cannot award the AI-generated label.

NOT TESTEDLocked evidenceRequires 100+ trades over 180+ untouched calendar days.
NOT TESTEDCost survivalMust beat exposure-matched Buy & Hold at 4 and 8 bps.
NOT TESTEDIntraday flatnessEvery position must close within its trading session.
NOT TESTEDImmutable provenanceExact algorithm, dataset, and trade-ledger SHA-256 fingerprints are mandatory.

How the strategy works

The model sells after price breaks the lowest low of the previous five sessions. It seeks continuation after an important short-term support level fails, then covers at the session close.

Concrete example

With a five-day low at 480, trading down through 480 triggers the short. If the market gaps directly to 477, the backtest uses 477 as the attainable entry instead of 480.

Exact algorithm

Required data: ohlcv

Where it may work—and where it can fail

EXPECTED BEST CONDITIONS

Persistent downtrends, failed support and broad risk-off participation.

IMPORTANT CONTEXT

The current test uses daily resolution and cannot establish intraday event ordering.

Main risks

“Best conditions” is an interpretation of the strategy's mechanism, not an additional course entry rule and not a performance guarantee.

Forward paper transactions

LEDGER START2026-08-16T22:55:33.255443+00:00
PAPER VERSIONv2 · 577a105744d1
STATUSrunning
STATUS DETAILNo issue
EntrySideEntry priceExitExit priceCapital basisGross notionalOutcomeP&L
2026-09-16 00:00:00+00:00SHORT702.742026-09-16 00:00:00+00:00704.72$10,000.00$10,000.00MISS$-32.18
2026-09-14 00:00:00+00:00SHORT703.332026-09-14 00:00:00+00:00709.18$10,000.00$10,000.00MISS$-87.25
2026-09-01 00:00:00+00:00SHORT707.392026-09-01 00:00:00+00:00707.64$10,000.00$10,000.00MISS$-7.53
2026-08-24 00:00:00+00:00SHORT708.522026-08-24 00:00:00+00:00706.32$10,000.00$10,000.00HIT$+27.05
2026-08-20 00:00:00+00:00SHORT712.092026-08-20 00:00:00+00:00710.93$10,000.00$10,000.00HIT$+12.29
2026-08-19 00:00:00+00:00SHORT715.922026-08-19 00:00:00+00:00716.08$10,000.00$10,000.00MISS$-6.24

Capital basis is allocated paper equity. Gross notional uses the exposure stored with that exact fill; legacy fills with no recorded exposure are shown as unknown. A new semantic paper generation archives the prior run and restarts the forward clock.

Archived paper versions

Read-only prior runs preserve their executable manifest, balances, and fills. They never contribute to the active clock, cash, or qualification.

VersionMarketExposureAllocationCostCode hashStartedArchivedFillsStarting cashEnding cashRealized P&LFinal status
legacy-v1unknown · unknownunknownunknownunknownlegacy2026-08-16T16:54:09.212635+00:002026-08-16T22:55:33.255443+00:000$100,000.00$100,000.00$+0.00running
TRADES480
AVERAGE TRADE-6.34 bps
STRATEGY 1.0x / BUY & HOLD 1x-28.64% / +569.87%
VS 1x REFERENCE-598.51% · LAGS
DRAWDOWN: STRATEGY / B&H+37.83% / +35.12%
HITS / MISSES232 / 248
HIT RATE+48.33%
AVG HIT / MISS+0.81% / -0.88%
LONGEST MISS STREAK8

Rolling 70/30 diagnostic

This moving 70/30 split is a dashboard diagnostic, not frozen qualification evidence. It cannot award AI-qualified status.

FINAL 30% TRADES144
STRATEGY / B&H 1x+9.21% / +103.92%
FINAL 30% VS B&H-94.71%
FINAL 30% HIT RATE+52.78%
FINAL 30% DRAWDOWN+9.13%
INDEPENDENT EVIDENCE?No

Candles and execution signals

▲ BUY▼ SELLHover a candle or marker for exact values
748.65713.52678.38643.24608.112026-04-10T00:00:00+00:00 O 611.84 H 613.67 L 609.58 C 611.072026-04-13T00:00:00+00:00 O 609.48 H 626.74 L 608.11 C 617.392026-04-14T00:00:00+00:00 O 620.22 H 628.60 L 620.10 C 628.602026-04-15T00:00:00+00:00 O 629.08 H 637.83 L 628.20 C 637.402026-04-16T00:00:00+00:00 O 639.21 H 642.18 L 635.26 C 640.472026-04-17T00:00:00+00:00 O 645.59 H 650.00 L 644.07 C 648.852026-04-20T00:00:00+00:00 O 648.04 H 648.76 L 642.52 C 646.792026-04-21T00:00:00+00:00 O 648.41 H 650.20 L 642.21 C 644.332026-04-22T00:00:00+00:00 O 650.15 H 655.33 L 648.52 C 655.112026-04-23T00:00:00+00:00 O 653.55 H 656.92 L 645.52 C 651.422026-04-24T00:00:00+00:00 O 658.51 H 664.51 L 656.53 C 663.882026-04-27T00:00:00+00:00 O 663.40 H 664.43 L 660.69 C 664.232026-04-28T00:00:00+00:00 O 657.41 H 659.64 L 653.81 C 657.552026-04-29T00:00:00+00:00 O 658.63 H 661.72 L 656.59 C 661.572026-04-30T00:00:00+00:00 O 665.35 H 668.90 L 657.56 C 667.742026-05-01T00:00:00+00:00 O 669.16 H 675.97 L 668.80 C 674.152026-05-04T00:00:00+00:00 O 674.66 H 676.73 L 668.90 C 672.882026-05-05T00:00:00+00:00 O 677.96 H 682.77 L 677.51 C 681.612026-05-06T00:00:00+00:00 O 687.78 H 695.93 L 686.48 C 695.772026-05-07T00:00:00+00:00 O 696.58 H 701.24 L 691.77 C 694.942026-05-08T00:00:00+00:00 O 699.92 H 711.23 L 699.50 C 711.232026-05-11T00:00:00+00:00 O 710.36 H 714.59 L 708.91 C 713.292026-05-12T00:00:00+00:00 O 708.22 H 710.18 L 696.64 C 707.242026-05-13T00:00:00+00:00 O 709.96 H 716.65 L 704.83 C 714.712026-05-14T00:00:00+00:00 O 714.62 H 722.03 L 714.22 C 719.792026-05-15T00:00:00+00:00 O 710.14 H 715.13 L 705.55 C 708.932026-05-18T00:00:00+00:00 O 711.54 H 712.07 L 698.85 C 705.882026-05-19T00:00:00+00:00 O 699.81 H 706.49 L 695.25 C 701.532026-05-20T00:00:00+00:00 O 705.29 H 713.15 L 703.79 C 713.152026-05-21T00:00:00+00:00 O 708.99 H 717.12 L 706.77 C 714.512026-05-22T00:00:00+00:00 O 718.07 H 722.12 L 715.95 C 717.542026-05-26T00:00:00+00:00 O 725.96 H 731.17 L 724.16 C 730.282026-05-27T00:00:00+00:00 O 732.96 H 733.32 L 725.44 C 729.452026-05-28T00:00:00+00:00 O 729.73 H 736.60 L 726.41 C 735.602026-05-29T00:00:00+00:00 O 737.84 H 741.63 L 735.25 C 738.312026-06-01T00:00:00+00:00 O 737.04 H 745.65 L 735.99 C 742.742026-06-02T00:00:00+00:00 O 742.40 H 746.44 L 739.23 C 746.162026-06-03T00:00:00+00:00 O 747.31 H 748.65 L 741.01 C 744.212026-06-04T00:00:00+00:00 O 735.48 H 743.50 L 732.62 C 740.612026-06-05T00:00:00+00:00 O 730.06 H 731.69 L 704.32 C 705.062026-06-08T00:00:00+00:00 O 717.81 H 723.03 L 713.07 C 716.072026-06-09T00:00:00+00:00 O 722.98 H 725.66 L 686.37 C 707.832026-06-10T00:00:00+00:00 O 701.66 H 711.28 L 692.93 C 693.692026-06-11T00:00:00+00:00 O 699.29 H 718.37 L 695.00 C 717.122026-06-12T00:00:00+00:00 O 717.61 H 724.01 L 711.28 C 721.342026-06-15T00:00:00+00:00 O 738.10 H 744.76 L 737.38 C 744.002026-06-16T00:00:00+00:00 O 742.25 H 744.22 L 729.64 C 729.862026-06-17T00:00:00+00:00 O 735.19 H 735.68 L 720.85 C 722.512026-06-18T00:00:00+00:00 O 737.20 H 741.82 L 732.51 C 740.622026-06-22T00:00:00+00:00 O 742.02 H 745.45 L 734.39 C 737.952026-06-23T00:00:00+00:00 O 715.74 H 723.61 L 712.11 C 713.652026-06-24T00:00:00+00:00 O 715.37 H 719.93 L 704.45 C 710.622026-06-25T00:00:00+00:00 O 725.90 H 726.83 L 705.30 C 716.382026-06-26T00:00:00+00:00 O 707.13 H 715.56 L 702.81 C 706.522026-06-29T00:00:00+00:00 O 713.99 H 724.58 L 705.17 C 724.082026-06-30T00:00:00+00:00 O 724.18 H 737.62 L 723.91 C 736.402026-07-01T00:00:00+00:00 O 729.19 H 731.92 L 724.60 C 725.172026-07-02T00:00:00+00:00 O 725.58 H 730.83 L 707.56 C 712.602026-07-06T00:00:00+00:00 O 719.93 H 726.08 L 718.45 C 722.822026-07-07T00:00:00+00:00 O 714.17 H 716.35 L 704.90 C 709.432026-07-08T00:00:00+00:00 O 704.95 H 712.26 L 700.91 C 711.442026-07-09T00:00:00+00:00 O 718.33 H 724.23 L 715.13 C 723.282026-07-10T00:00:00+00:00 O 720.70 H 726.39 L 717.00 C 725.512026-07-13T00:00:00+00:00 O 717.72 H 718.74 L 710.08 C 711.742026-07-14T00:00:00+00:00 O 720.22 H 722.29 L 714.34 C 719.692026-07-15T00:00:00+00:00 O 723.85 H 724.36 L 710.23 C 717.742026-07-16T00:00:00+00:00 O 712.01 H 713.60 L 702.61 C 705.942026-07-17T00:00:00+00:00 O 691.65 H 702.30 L 686.76 C 695.332026-07-20T00:00:00+00:00 O 702.16 H 705.80 L 695.51 C 696.062026-07-21T00:00:00+00:00 O 706.57 H 710.05 L 702.80 C 708.972026-07-22T00:00:00+00:00 O 703.62 H 709.65 L 703.62 C 705.352026-07-23T00:00:00+00:00 O 694.67 H 698.66 L 687.79 C 691.962026-07-24T00:00:00+00:00 O 690.41 H 692.63 L 682.48 C 684.232026-07-27T00:00:00+00:00 O 691.68 H 692.30 L 675.95 C 682.122026-07-28T00:00:00+00:00 O 676.23 H 679.40 L 667.88 C 675.492026-07-29T00:00:00+00:00 O 675.51 H 680.05 L 661.14 C 661.732026-07-30T00:00:00+00:00 O 674.76 H 685.12 L 673.30 C 683.552026-07-31T00:00:00+00:00 O 692.11 H 695.77 L 680.05 C 687.992026-08-03T00:00:00+00:00 O 688.30 H 701.59 L 685.82 C 700.072026-08-04T00:00:00+00:00 O 708.16 H 725.66 L 707.53 C 723.852026-08-05T00:00:00+00:00 O 726.25 H 728.54 L 716.92 C 717.302026-08-06T00:00:00+00:00 O 710.82 H 719.32 L 708.50 C 714.652026-08-07T00:00:00+00:00 O 720.15 H 723.63 L 716.51 C 723.032026-08-10T00:00:00+00:00 O 722.39 H 724.67 L 720.33 C 720.872026-08-11T00:00:00+00:00 O 723.29 H 723.35 L 715.50 C 718.452026-08-12T00:00:00+00:00 O 727.08 H 727.25 L 722.92 C 723.702026-08-13T00:00:00+00:00 O 725.15 H 733.96 L 724.03 C 732.072026-08-14T00:00:00+00:00 O 733.41 H 734.39 L 728.32 C 731.072026-08-17T00:00:00+00:00 O 732.95 H 734.58 L 729.27 C 729.872026-08-18T00:00:00+00:00 O 720.21 H 722.13 L 715.92 C 717.512026-08-19T00:00:00+00:00 O 720.39 H 721.50 L 712.61 C 716.082026-08-20T00:00:00+00:00 O 712.09 H 714.94 L 708.52 C 710.932026-08-21T00:00:00+00:00 O 715.23 H 715.67 L 709.20 C 713.442026-08-24T00:00:00+00:00 O 709.66 H 709.79 L 702.70 C 706.322026-08-25T00:00:00+00:00 O 711.22 H 714.04 L 707.45 C 710.722026-08-26T00:00:00+00:00 O 708.41 H 713.02 L 707.97 C 711.372026-08-27T00:00:00+00:00 O 716.93 H 721.35 L 714.53 C 721.112026-08-28T00:00:00+00:00 O 719.74 H 724.13 L 715.09 C 716.432026-08-31T00:00:00+00:00 O 715.17 H 717.58 L 713.16 C 716.762026-09-01T00:00:00+00:00 O 707.39 H 712.30 L 704.66 C 707.642026-09-02T00:00:00+00:00 O 707.10 H 709.80 L 705.10 C 709.242026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00 O 710.85 H 718.92 L 709.69 C 717.672026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00 O 719.35 H 721.86 L 716.56 C 718.962026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00 O 720.91 H 721.89 L 715.57 C 718.362026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00 O 716.40 H 719.70 L 714.02 C 716.312026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00 O 707.55 H 712.06 L 706.86 C 708.692026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00 O 715.68 H 717.63 L 713.63 C 714.882026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00 O 703.33 H 712.95 L 702.74 C 709.182026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00 O 708.80 H 709.53 L 703.64 C 704.542026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00 O 708.00 H 711.88 L 700.00 C 704.722026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00 O 715.95 H 718.04 L 713.32 C 716.922026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00 O 718.83 H 721.73 L 715.08 C 721.452026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00 O 727.89 H 743.22 L 727.81 C 741.472026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00 O 740.98 H 748.35 L 740.93 C 747.462026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00 O 746.97 H 747.13 L 738.19 C 741.212026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00 O 735.29 H 742.66 L 734.62 C 741.102026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00 O 742.83 H 745.92 L 739.64 C 744.502026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00 O 740.46 H 741.42 L 731.63 C 736.532026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00 O 740.15 H 740.58 L 735.34 C 737.932026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00 O 740.19 H 745.08 L 739.76 C 743.18ENTRY SELL · 2026-05-19 00:00:00+00:00 · 696.64SELLEXIT BUY · 2026-05-19 00:00:00+00:00 · 701.53BUYENTRY SELL · 2026-06-05 00:00:00+00:00 · 730.06SELLEXIT BUY · 2026-06-05 00:00:00+00:00 · 705.06BUYENTRY SELL · 2026-06-09 00:00:00+00:00 · 704.32SELLEXIT BUY · 2026-06-09 00:00:00+00:00 · 707.83BUYENTRY SELL · 2026-06-23 00:00:00+00:00 · 715.74SELLEXIT BUY · 2026-06-23 00:00:00+00:00 · 713.65BUYENTRY SELL · 2026-06-24 00:00:00+00:00 · 712.11SELLEXIT BUY · 2026-06-24 00:00:00+00:00 · 710.62BUYENTRY SELL · 2026-06-26 00:00:00+00:00 · 704.45SELLEXIT BUY · 2026-06-26 00:00:00+00:00 · 706.52BUYENTRY SELL · 2026-07-07 00:00:00+00:00 · 705.17SELLEXIT BUY · 2026-07-07 00:00:00+00:00 · 709.43BUYENTRY SELL · 2026-07-08 00:00:00+00:00 · 704.90SELLEXIT BUY · 2026-07-08 00:00:00+00:00 · 711.44BUYENTRY SELL · 2026-07-16 00:00:00+00:00 · 710.08SELLEXIT BUY · 2026-07-16 00:00:00+00:00 · 705.94BUYENTRY SELL · 2026-07-17 00:00:00+00:00 · 691.65SELLEXIT BUY · 2026-07-17 00:00:00+00:00 · 695.33BUYENTRY SELL · 2026-07-24 00:00:00+00:00 · 686.76SELLEXIT BUY · 2026-07-24 00:00:00+00:00 · 684.23BUYENTRY SELL · 2026-07-27 00:00:00+00:00 · 682.48SELLEXIT BUY · 2026-07-27 00:00:00+00:00 · 682.12BUYENTRY SELL · 2026-07-28 00:00:00+00:00 · 675.95SELLEXIT BUY · 2026-07-28 00:00:00+00:00 · 675.49BUYENTRY SELL · 2026-07-29 00:00:00+00:00 · 667.88SELLEXIT BUY · 2026-07-29 00:00:00+00:00 · 661.73BUYENTRY SELL · 2026-08-19 00:00:00+00:00 · 715.92SELLEXIT BUY · 2026-08-19 00:00:00+00:00 · 716.08BUYENTRY SELL · 2026-08-20 00:00:00+00:00 · 712.09SELLEXIT BUY · 2026-08-20 00:00:00+00:00 · 710.93BUYENTRY SELL · 2026-08-24 00:00:00+00:00 · 708.52SELLEXIT BUY · 2026-08-24 00:00:00+00:00 · 706.32BUYENTRY SELL · 2026-09-01 00:00:00+00:00 · 707.39SELLEXIT BUY · 2026-09-01 00:00:00+00:00 · 707.64BUYENTRY SELL · 2026-09-14 00:00:00+00:00 · 703.33SELLEXIT BUY · 2026-09-14 00:00:00+00:00 · 709.18BUYENTRY SELL · 2026-09-16 00:00:00+00:00 · 702.74SELLEXIT BUY · 2026-09-16 00:00:00+00:00 · 704.72BUY2026-04-102026-09-30

Shows the latest 120 available bars. BUY/SELL marks strategy entries and exits whose timestamps fall in this visible window.

Historical equity curve

Compounds each encoded net trade sequentially, including the strategy's declared exposure and modeled costs. The forward ledger starts only after deployment.

Backtest specification

STATUS / REPLICATIONcompleted · daily_resolution_proxy
DATAYahoo Finance (delayed/unofficial)
MARKETQQQ · 1d
HISTORY2016-09-30T00:00:00+00:00
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00
WIN RATE+48.33%
PROFIT FACTOR0.86

The current test uses daily resolution and cannot establish intraday event ordering.

Historical transactions

Download JSONDownload all transactions as CSV

HIT = profitable after the 4 bps cost assumption; MISS = loss after costs; FLAT = break-even. Showing the most recent 100 of 480 transactions.

EntrySideEntry priceExitExit priceOutcomeNet return
2026-09-16 00:00:00+00:00SHORT702.742026-09-16 00:00:00+00:00704.72MISS-0.322%
2026-09-14 00:00:00+00:00SHORT703.332026-09-14 00:00:00+00:00709.18MISS-0.872%
2026-09-01 00:00:00+00:00SHORT707.392026-09-01 00:00:00+00:00707.64MISS-0.075%
2026-08-24 00:00:00+00:00SHORT708.522026-08-24 00:00:00+00:00706.32HIT+0.271%
2026-08-20 00:00:00+00:00SHORT712.092026-08-20 00:00:00+00:00710.93HIT+0.123%
2026-08-19 00:00:00+00:00SHORT715.922026-08-19 00:00:00+00:00716.08MISS-0.062%
2026-07-29 00:00:00+00:00SHORT667.882026-07-29 00:00:00+00:00661.73HIT+0.881%
2026-07-28 00:00:00+00:00SHORT675.952026-07-28 00:00:00+00:00675.49HIT+0.028%
2026-07-27 00:00:00+00:00SHORT682.482026-07-27 00:00:00+00:00682.12HIT+0.013%
2026-07-24 00:00:00+00:00SHORT686.762026-07-24 00:00:00+00:00684.23HIT+0.328%
2026-07-17 00:00:00+00:00SHORT691.652026-07-17 00:00:00+00:00695.33MISS-0.572%
2026-07-16 00:00:00+00:00SHORT710.082026-07-16 00:00:00+00:00705.94HIT+0.543%
2026-07-08 00:00:00+00:00SHORT704.902026-07-08 00:00:00+00:00711.44MISS-0.968%
2026-07-07 00:00:00+00:00SHORT705.172026-07-07 00:00:00+00:00709.43MISS-0.644%
2026-06-26 00:00:00+00:00SHORT704.452026-06-26 00:00:00+00:00706.52MISS-0.334%
2026-06-24 00:00:00+00:00SHORT712.112026-06-24 00:00:00+00:00710.62HIT+0.169%
2026-06-23 00:00:00+00:00SHORT715.742026-06-23 00:00:00+00:00713.65HIT+0.252%
2026-06-09 00:00:00+00:00SHORT704.322026-06-09 00:00:00+00:00707.83MISS-0.538%
2026-06-05 00:00:00+00:00SHORT730.062026-06-05 00:00:00+00:00705.06HIT+3.384%
2026-05-19 00:00:00+00:00SHORT696.642026-05-19 00:00:00+00:00701.53MISS-0.742%
2026-03-30 00:00:00+00:00SHORT561.572026-03-30 00:00:00+00:00558.28HIT+0.546%
2026-03-27 00:00:00+00:00SHORT570.812026-03-27 00:00:00+00:00562.58HIT+1.402%
2026-03-26 00:00:00+00:00SHORT578.542026-03-26 00:00:00+00:00573.79HIT+0.781%
2026-03-20 00:00:00+00:00SHORT587.082026-03-20 00:00:00+00:00582.06HIT+0.815%
2026-03-19 00:00:00+00:00SHORT589.512026-03-19 00:00:00+00:00593.02MISS-0.635%
2026-03-09 00:00:00+00:00SHORT591.872026-03-09 00:00:00+00:00607.76MISS-2.725%
2026-03-03 00:00:00+00:00SHORT596.332026-03-03 00:00:00+00:00601.58MISS-0.920%
2026-03-02 00:00:00+00:00SHORT598.862026-03-02 00:00:00+00:00608.09MISS-1.581%
2026-02-17 00:00:00+00:00SHORT596.422026-02-17 00:00:00+00:00601.30MISS-0.858%
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